A last-ball victory against Bangladesh on Wednesday has kept India’s hopes of winning the World Cup T20 alive.
The win keeps India on course for the World T20 title and a victory over Australia in the final league game on March 27 will see them through to the semi-finals, behind leaders New Zealand. Their poor net run rate, however, may be a dampener and leave India in a tricky situation if Pakistan defeat Australia.
New Zealand have already qualified for the semis and Bangladesh can’t qualify now. The World Cup T20 is now a three-way fight between India, Pakistan and Australia for the second semis spot.
Two matches — Pakistan vs Australia and India vs Australia — will decide the second semifinalist from the group.
Here’s a look at how the hosts, pre-tournament favourites, can make it to the World T20 semis:
1) If Australia beat Pakistan
Shahid Afridi’s team will be knocked out of the tournament if Australia beat Pakistan in Friday’s match. The Ozzies will then have 4 points and the India vs Australia match on Sunday then becomes a knockout encounter, with the winner going through to the semis.
2) If Pakistan beat Australia
In such a scenario, Pakistan will be tied India on 4 points but Afridi’s team will be No. 2 on the points table as they have a higher net run rate.
India then has to win its match against Australia to make it to the semis. If, however, Australia beat India, Steve Smith’s team will be level with India and Pakistan on 4 points each.
Australia or Pakistan, whoever has the higher net run rate, will then make it to the semis as India’s net run rate is currently the lowest among the three and a loss will only further push it down.
3) If Australia vs Pakistan match is tied or washed out
Both teams will then be on 3 points each and the India vs Australia match will become a knockout game, with the winner advancing to the semis.
4) If Australia beat Pakistan and India vs Australia is tied/washed out
In this case, Dhoni and Smith’s teams will both have 5 points each. The team with the higher net run rate will make it to the semis.