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Stat analysis: What happens if India lose to Pakistan today?

India’s WorldT20 title hopes may end on Saturday if they were to lose against Pakistan in Kolkata.

world t20 Updated: Mar 19, 2016 17:44 IST
Vignesh Radhakrishnan
What if India lose today

Pakistan captain Shahid Afridi interacts with Virat Kohli during their training session at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata on Friday.(PTI)

India’s WorldT20 title hopes may end on Saturday if they lose against Pakistan in Kolkata.

Fresh from a 47-run defeat against New Zealand, India -- a team that entered as favourites -- will be desperate to register their first win in the tournament and keep their title dream alive.

An ‘unpredictable’ Pakistan, brimming with confidence after a resounding victory against Bangladesh, will be looking forward to strengthen their title hopes by winning against India on Saturday .

Only the top two teams from each group will qualify for the semi-finals.

India are in Group 2 along with New Zealand, Pakistan, Australia and Bangladesh.

Each team in the group will play each other only once.

The present points table looks like this:

Assumption

Let us assume that India lose to Pakistan. In this scenario, the tally would look like this:

The following four scenarios emerge if we take into account the above assumption and Bangladesh lose all their remaining matches.

Scenario 1 - India win both their remaining matches; New Zealand win 2/2; Pakistan win 1/2; Australia win 1/3; Bangladesh win 0/3

India won’t get a semi-final berth in this scenario. The final group stage points table will look like this:

Scenario 2 - India win 2/2; New Zealand win 2/2; Pakistan win 0/2; Australia win 2/3 ; Bangladesh win 0/3

In this case Australia, Pakistan and India will be in a run-rate tussle. The final group stage points table will look like this:

Scenario 3 - India win 2/2; New Zealand win 1/2 ; Pakistan win 2/2; Australia win 1/3 ; Bangladesh win 0/3

India won’t get a semi-final berth in this scenario. The final group stage points table will look like this:

Scenario 4 - India win 2/2 ; New Zealand win 1/2 ; Pakistan win 1/2 ; Australia win 2/3 ; Bangladesh win 0/3.

India won’t get a semi-final berth in this scenario. The final group stage points table will look like this:

Conclusion

If India lose against Pakistan on Saturday, they have a small chance of entering the semi-finals. They have a chance of going through to the semi-finals only in Scenario 2.