Ian Bremmer

In Brazil, a battle of populists — from the Right and the Left

As for the Amazon fires, deforestation accounted for one-third of the destruction of the world’s tropical forests in 2019. Trump, a climate sceptic, was willing to ignore the implications of this destruction, but the Joe Biden administration has joined with European leaders to combine offers of financial help for Brazil with pressure on Bolsonaro to reverse course on the Amazon policy

Over the past few years, Brazil’s citizens have endured the worst recession in the country’s history, one of the world’s highest Covid-19 death tolls, a surge in violent crime, and global controversy over large-scale destruction in the Amazon forest. (AFP)

opinion

Published on Jun 06, 2021 07:46 PM IST

A fractured response to coronavirus | Opinion

World leaders fended off the 2008 slowdown together. But this time, it has been different

Brace yourself for much more political drama in the weeks ahead(REUTERS)

Published on Mar 10, 2020 10:15 PM IST

An era of adverse climate, geopolitics and economy

The world is in a situation that it hasn’t been in before — globalisation, geopolitics and economics all turning negative at the same time, while the world’s physical environment becomes increasingly inhospitable.

It is now a genuine political issue as extreme climate events have increased, in both frequency and severity. Politicians will have both less political space and resources to devote to the issue as globalisation stalls and both economics and geopolitics head into the downswing of their respective cycles(Satish Bate/HT Photo)

Updated on Dec 14, 2019 06:07 PM IST

The proliferation of popular protests | Opinion

If there is one thing that unites the world in 2019, it’s anger at governments—that should worry both governments and the people that are raging against them

A demonstrator throws a brick on Pedder Street during a lunchtime protest in the Central district of Hong Kong, China, Nov 13. Hong Kong protests continue, flummoxing one of the world’s most significant economic power centres(Bloomberg)

Updated on Nov 16, 2019 07:54 PM IST

Trump will survive, but the worst is yet to come

The biggest impact of impeachment proceedings will be to push the US closer to a constitutional crisis with the 2020 election at its heart. It will call into question the legitimacy of the American political process itself

Even a failed impeachment bid will have impact on American politics going forward. The first and most obvious effect is on the president himself, who has already begun displaying erratic behaviour, both on Twitter and in real life(REUTERS)

Updated on Oct 13, 2019 06:44 AM IST

Hindustan Times | ByIan Bremmer

The promise of liberal democracy lives on within different political cultures

Liberal democracy faces its share of challenges, but EGF’s report indicates that people in the countries surveyed tend to differentiate between US government policies and the principles of individual rights and freedoms that American democracy provides

Much of the fear for democracy’s future centres on hardening international attitudes toward Donald Trump and the United States(AFP)

Published on Jun 29, 2019 07:56 PM IST

Leaders must weigh the political risks of new systems they introduce

One system is Aadhaar which has the potential to be transformative, but is not without perils

Back in 2010, the Indian government launched Aadhaar, an ambitious biometric identification system, to help keep track of the social services being provided to India’s 1.34 billion citizens(AFP)

Updated on May 10, 2019 07:32 PM IST

Europe is facing several challenges beyond Brexit

Russia, China, and Africa will sow new divisions among EU states in coming years—and at a time when European consensus on important questions is already facing extraordinary stress

Protesters take part in a March for Europe to protest the Britain's vote to leave the European Union, London, July 2, 2016(AFP)

Updated on Apr 10, 2019 10:27 PM IST

How much ground has democracy lost in recent years?

Democracy, like technology, evolves. No one can say with confidence that any autocrat will govern for life. But for many governments around the world, lasting authoritarian rule is becoming a much more realistic option

In China, 30 years ago, an audacious public protest in the capital’s central square pushed China’s autocrats to the brink(REUTERS)

Updated on Mar 09, 2019 05:19 PM IST

Venezuelans may finally have brighter days ahead

There’s no guarantee that true change is imminent. Maduro has proven his staying power again and again, mainly because Venezuela’s military has yet to decide that keeping him is costlier and more risky than packing him off into exile.

Venezuelan opposition leader and self-proclaimed interim president Juan Guaido and his wife Fabiana Rosales gesture during a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas, Venezuela February 2(REUTERS)

Updated on Feb 24, 2019 11:38 AM IST

Rocky road ahead for Donald Trump in 2019

The greatest risk for Trump is that Republicans—voters and lawmakers—decide they can no longer afford his leadership

Those who underestimate Donald Trump’s political instincts are making a mistake. There have been few figures in American public life who better understand the sources of fear and anger that drive his most reliable followers(ANI)

Updated on Jan 20, 2019 10:26 AM IST

China’s assertion is turning Asian geopolitics even more contentious

Chinese leaders are now well aware that this expansion is creating a backlash in Asia, and elsewhere, as policymakers and companies in neighbouring countries see threats embedded in Beijing’s plans.

Whatever the current state of the US-China trade war, Asia’s geopolitics are fast becoming more contentious. Presidents Trump and Xi may have made some progress toward compromise at the recent G20 summit in Buenos Aires(AFP)

Updated on Dec 07, 2018 06:39 PM IST

Midterms: How will the new reality in Washington influence Trump’s foreign policy?

Donald Trump’s political talents should not be underestimated, and many presidents, including Obama, have recovered from midterm defeats to win re-election, sometimes easily.

US President Donald Trump addresses a news conference after the midterm congressional elections at the White House in Washington.(REUTERS)

Updated on Nov 11, 2018 01:04 PM IST

The reconstruction of Syria depends on Assad’s firm control of the country

For the moment, Syria’s final remaining rebel stronghold remains quiet. Turkey’s government has brokered a deal that delays the day of judgment when Bashar al-Assad’s army, backed by Russia, will attack Idlib province to kill the last of its holdouts.

A man rides his bicycle at the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk in the Syrian capital Damascus on October 6, 2018.(AP)

opinion

Updated on Oct 07, 2018 03:12 PM IST

The US market collapse has remade our world

And there is surely more to come. How do we prepare for a world where, two years from now, the country you care most about may be governed by someone you’ve never heard of and a political party that doesn’t yet exist? The pace of change is head-spinning.

What’s the big trend in today’s international politics? Out with the old, in with something new. Voters around the world are looking for someone else. Anyone else. Someone they believe can help them regain control of their lives and get them off the path they believe they’re now on.(AFP)

Updated on Sep 15, 2018 04:50 PM IST

Dark days ahead for major Latin American countries

Mounting corruption, credibility crisis and public anger have become common features throughout Latin America

Security personal stand before shoes and toys left at the Tornillo Port of Entry in Tornillo, Texas, where minors crossing the border without proper papers have been housed after being separated from adults(AFP)

Published on Jul 14, 2018 05:31 PM IST

In the Trump-Kim deal, China is the biggest winner

As US influence recedes with a partial drawdown of troops, China will gain another step toward becoming East Asia’s dominant diplomatic and economic player.

A combination photo shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, North Korea and U.S. President Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., respectively from Reuters files. Will Kim accept anything less than an explicit US pledge never to invade his country?(Reuters)

Published on May 12, 2018 03:49 PM IST

The turmoil in the US and Europe — including tech change and inequality — are crossing into the developing world

Where do all those energetic, ambitious young people go? The youth bulge we see in many developing countries can move from economic advantage to political threat as their path out of poverty is blocked. If they never join the active workforce, they will never have access to the education and training needed to earn 21st century jobs, and they know their children will fare no better

A protester attends a demonstration during a national day of strike against reforms in Paris, France, March 22(REUTERS)

Updated on Apr 15, 2018 07:33 AM IST

Angela Merkel is beleaguered but she is far from finished

As she begins her fourth and final term as Germany’s chancellor, her party remains Germany’s strongest, and she is more popular than the party. Germany’s economy will continue to expand. Unfortunately, Europe and the world need more leadership than a frustrated and erratic Donald Trump and a beleaguered Angela Merkel can provide.

An asylum seeker takes a selfie with German Chancellor Angela Merkel following her visit to a branch of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees and a camp for refugees in Berlin, 2017(AFP)

Updated on Mar 31, 2018 04:08 PM IST

Friction between the US and China is likely to last through 2018

Here’s the problem: Each side believes the other is more vulnerable. Trump officials believe that China needs continuous access to US markets to avoid a sharp economic slowdown that might provoke a political crisis. Chinese officials believe their president is much less vulnerable to pressure than Trump, who must listen to continuous complaints from US business leaders and face voters again soon enough

Trump officials believe that China needs continuous access to US markets to avoid a sharp economic slowdown that might provoke a political crisis. Chinese officials believe their president is much less vulnerable to pressure than Trump, who must listen to continuous complaints from US business leaders and face voters again soon enough(REUTERS)

Updated on Feb 13, 2018 01:28 PM IST

As the US scales back on foreign policy interventions, China is stepping into the vacuum

As he begins his second five-year term, Xi has consolidated enough power at home to redefine China’s external environment and set new rules within it. His timing is perfect; China is stepping forward just at the moment that a politically embattled and distracted US president is scaling back US commitment to traditional allies and alliances. The United States has created a vacuum, and China stands ready to fill it

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during a joint press briefing with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on January 9, 2018. Chinese President Xi Jinping and French counterpart Emmanuel Macron met Tuesday for talks and to oversee the signing of business deals as the two global leaders seek closer ties(AFP)

Published on Jan 20, 2018 06:22 PM IST

In 2018, regional security will matter most for war and peace

In the new year, we’ll begin to see more clearly that connections between politics, security, and our economies are changing more quickly and becoming more complex than we might have imagined when 2017 began

As Trump backs the US away from new commitments, China’s government will continue to advance the Belt-Road project to extend its economic — and, therefore, political — influence across Asia and into Europe(AFP)

Published on Dec 29, 2017 06:42 PM IST

hindustan times leadership summit 2019

HTLS column by Ian Bremmer: Foreign policy rides on Modi’s charisma

PM Narendra Modi’s charisma, his determined push for economic development and his anti-corruption drive have made him broadly popular.

PM Narendra Damodardas Modi shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after signing the guestbook at the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial museum in Jerusalem on July 4 2017. In July, Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel.(AP File Photo)

Updated on Nov 29, 2017 02:31 PM IST

African National Congress could well lose power in the next polls

The current government’s promises to turn things around don’t have much credibility. Jacob Zuma has survived nearly 800 separate charges of fraud, money-laundering, and graft, a court ruling that he violated the country’s constitution, multiple votes of no-confidence, and a rape trial. South Africa’s Central Bank governor has now called for a public investigation into ties between Zuma, business leaders, and a family of Indian businessmen known as the Guptas.

South African president Jacob Zuma in New Delhi, 2015(Hindustan Times)

Updated on Oct 28, 2017 03:11 PM IST

The power of China’s chequebook shows in its rising global influence

Whether it is in Asia, Africa or Europe, China is using investment to get what it wants from countries and governments in need

One of Kenya's newly acquired standard gauge rail locomotives, carrying Kenyan President pulls into Voi railway station on May 31, 2017, in Voi. Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta on Wednesday inaugurated a Chinese-built railway, the country's biggest infrastructure project since independence that is aimed at cementing its role as the gateway to East Africa.(AFP)

Updated on Sep 25, 2017 10:00 AM IST

Is it too early to get optimistic about the European Union?

Germany under Angela Merkel and France under Emmanuel Macron are the bright spots, while developments in Italy, Turkey and Poland give cause for concern

From left, French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Donald Trump, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Italy, May 26, 2017(AP)

Updated on Aug 12, 2017 09:35 PM IST

On climate change, immigration, federal states can oppose Trump’s ‘America First’

The Trump administration’s often rejectionist ‘America First’ approach to the rest of the world has given a new urgency for federal states and big cities in the US to strengthen ties with foreign governments, on issues like tackling climate change

No issue better illustrates the power of US states to set their own agendas than climate change. Here is a ‘problem without borders’ that can’t be addressed without cooperation from the US, which remains the second largest emitter of greenhouse gasses after China(AFP)

Updated on Jul 13, 2017 04:31 PM IST

Who is the next leader of the free world, now that the US is not?

Who is leader of the free world today? Not Trump, the first US president since the 1930s who does not believe that international leadership is in the US national interest. Is it Europe? China?

French President Emmanuel Macron, U.S. President Donald Trump, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a G7 meeting(AP)

Updated on Jun 20, 2017 04:10 PM IST

As North Korea grows more aggressive, Trump will have to figure out ways to handle it

Given claims of North Korea and Kim Jong-un having developed intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads, Donald Trump will have to be very careful in dealing with the country

Sanctions won’t change minds in Pyongyang, because the leadership pays no political price for hardship imposed on the North Korean people, and because they help Kim Jong-un’s government persuade them that outsiders want to destroy them.(AFP)

Published on May 24, 2017 01:28 PM IST