Monsoon unlikely to arrive in Mumbai before June 10

Published on May 31, 2022 11:09 PM IST

Despite the dry pre-monsoon season, experts said that there is a strong indication of good rains in the region over the next two months.

Both official long-range forecasts issued in April and May indicate a high possibility of above-normal rainfall in Maharashtra this monsoon season (Anshuman Poyrekar/HT PHOTO)
Both official long-range forecasts issued in April and May indicate a high possibility of above-normal rainfall in Maharashtra this monsoon season (Anshuman Poyrekar/HT PHOTO)
ByPrayag Arora-Desai

Mumbai: The approaching southwest monsoon, which made an early onset above Kerala on May 29, is unlikely to reach the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) before June 10. India Meteorological Department (IMD), which released its second stage monsoon forecast, said that the monsoon may arrive over parts of Goa and the southern Konkan region within the next two to three days.

“At present, we do not have an onset date for Mumbai. It would be unscientific to make a guess at the moment. On the whole, forecasts at present suggest an above-normal monsoon for Central India, which includes all four meteorological divisions of Maharashtra. About 106% of the long-period average is expected. Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and some parts of Konkan and Goa in the next 48 to 72 hours,” said KS Hosalikar, head of the IMD’s surface instrument division in Pune.

IMD data shows that Mumbai and the surrounding Konkan coast received deficient rainfall in May. Mumbai city recorded a 79% rainfall deficit for the month, with just 3.3mm of rainfall observed against the normal amount of 15.6mm, while the Konkan region showed a deficit of 47%, recording 17.3mm of rain during the month, as against a normal amount of 33mm.

Despite the dry pre-monsoon season, experts said that there is a strong indication of good rains in the region over the next two months.

Both official long-range forecasts issued in April and May indicate a high possibility of above-normal rainfall in Maharashtra this monsoon season. In particular, the long-range forecast issued on 31 May shows a very high possibility of above-normal rainfall in Madhya Maharashtra and parts of eastern Vidarbha as well as southern Marathwada. As per this forecast, it would be prudent to carefully plan the discharge of dam water in Madhya Maharashtra and parts of Konkan during this monsoon season to avoid any flooding such as the July 2021 flood.

For most of Maharashtra, June will begin with dry and hot weather conditions, and the outlook for the first fortnight suggests below-average rainfall.

“The second fortnight holds the key to rainfall recovery. The maximum temperature in many parts of Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra will continue to remain above 40°C during the first seven days of June. Proper monsoon conditions are not expected in the state before June 10, so farmers must refrain from sowing,” said Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist.

“No meaningful rainfall is expected in Mumbai-MMR before June 7. Only intermittent partly cloudy weather conditions and localised passing drizzles, and light showers in some pockets are expected. Rainfall could gradually start increasing after June 7, and we could expect the monsoon after June 10,” he added.

SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
SHARE
Story Saved
×
Saved Articles
Following
My Reads
My Offers
Sign out
New Delhi 0C
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Start 15 Days Free Trial Subscribe Now
Register Free and get Exciting Deals