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Maha to receive above-normal rainfall in Sept
There is no indication of monsoon withdrawal at least in the first half of the month, the IMD has underlined in its rainfall and temperature outlook for September.
PUNE: Maharashtra is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in September, according to the monthly outlook issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast suggests that most parts of the state will continue to benefit from active monsoon conditions but the Konkan belt and certain pockets of southern Marathwada and central Maharashtra may experience normal to below-normal rainfall during the month.
There is no indication of monsoon withdrawal at least in the first half of the month, the IMD has underlined in its rainfall and temperature outlook for September. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of meteorology at IMD, said during a virtual presentation that a fresh weather system is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal in the coming days which will bring widespread rainfall across several parts of the country, thereby ensuring that the southwest monsoon remains active for the next two weeks. “The short-term forecast clearly shows that there is no chance of withdrawal of the monsoon till mid-September,” Mohapatra said.
Maharashtra saw an active monsoon phase in August; receiving 331.8 mm rainfall between August 1 and 31 which is 18% above the normal rainfall of 280.2 mm, placing it in the normal category. However, central Maharashtra reported 217.5 mm of rainfall compared to its normal of 201.2 mm, while Vidarbha recorded 278.3 mm against the normal 297.1 mm; both considered within the normal range. Marathwada witnessed a significant surplus, recording 290.9 mm of rainfall against its normal of 176.8 mm, which is around 65% above average and falls under the large excess category. The Konkan subdivision, traditionally known for heavy rainfall, also recorded surplus rainfall with 1014.5 mm compared to the normal 741.7 mm, making it 37% above normal and placing it in the excess category.
After the variable rainfall in August, the forecast for September also indicates a mixed pattern. The overall picture suggests that most of Maharashtra will receive above-normal rainfall but Konkan, along with some parts of southern Marathwada and central Maharashtra, is expected to witness normal to below-normal precipitation. This variation could have implications for agriculture, especially in the Konkan region where farmers rely heavily on consistent rainfall for paddy cultivation.
Explaining the broader climate drivers influencing this year’s monsoon, Mohapatra said that neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region and are likely to continue till the end of the season. ENSO, which plays a key role in determining the strength and distribution of the monsoon, has remained neutral throughout this period, providing relatively stable conditions. Over the Indian Ocean, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently present. However, forecasts indicate that a weak negative IOD could emerge briefly towards the end of the season, although it is not expected to have a major impact.
The IMD has already shared its probabilistic rainfall forecast maps with both state and central authorities to help them prepare for any potential weather-related disruptions. “We have communicated the possible rainfall scenario for different regions so that the administrative machinery can take appropriate precautionary measures. It is important to plan in advance to avoid any mishaps that may occur due to heavy or uneven rainfall distribution,” Mohapatra said.
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