E-Paper
2026: Corroding values and national security
This article is authored by Tara Kartha, former director, National Security Council Secretariat, New Delhi.
The latest US adventure, of virtually kidnapping a sitting president and his wife to face charges in the US should come as no surprise. The slide in values which underpins international law has been apparent over the last few years with bloody wars and insurrections, not to mention severe social and political unrest. Values are serious business. Those are the fundamentals for which militaries fight, and for which the flag is raised to rally around. It provides the guardrails for society, and thereby for governments themselves. When that goes, almost everything else goes. That includes the economy, which is why businesses are getting jumpy. They’re not too picky on values themselves, but they like the stability it brings.
A global risk assessment company recently observed a record spike in social and political risk assessments marking over 40%, higher than even the pandemic period. A clear 68 out of 166 countries analysed present a higher risk than before, with 106 above their pre-pandemic average. This rising trend is not just about long grinding wars and conflicts, but also a political and social climate that has driven up general frustration leading to the so-called Gen Z revolutions in various trouble spots. Wars enmeshed whole countries rather than being limited to battlefields, and every man, woman and child fair game for the ‘enemy’. More than six million refugees spilled out of Ukraine, with massive displacements in Gaza. War was always a bloody business, but in the age of information, the horror reached every household, leading to a near ‘normalisation’ of violence. Nuclear dangers arose with fears of accidental strikes on nuclear installations and a series of threats. Meanwhile, conventional missile barrages became the norm rather than the exception, with even non-State actors like the Houthis entering the fray. All these lessons are being learnt across militaries, indicating a total erosion of a fundamental value – that of human life.
The second phenomenon of revolutions is in part linked to these wars, and the multiplier effect of the media with Gaza a rallying cry in 137 countries, with 48,000 protests since 2023. Another interesting statistic. Australia emerged among the top ten for such protests, despite years of total stability. The Bondi Beach massacre followed, and political rawness thereafter, in a chain of events that stretches across the world, with Palestine as a lynchpin. But that doesn’t explain the hatred and blood shedding in Bangladesh, or Nepal, or 50 violent protests that have occurred across 33 economies. The sparks are different--a local death or corruption expose--but the underlying frustrations point to disillusionment and loss of faith in those that govern. Together with rising inflation and unemployment, it’s a dangerous combination. Bangladesh, spiralling downwards economically, has turned to religious extremism, framed by the youth as a solution to endemic corruption, and regaining control over their lives. An entire generation is adrift, with no moorings in societal values.
That loss of belief, is ties to the third trend which is a steady weakening of institutions. Oddly, the most advanced economies suffered the most. The US has seen the most serious erosion, due mostly to the Trump strategy of deliberate disruption, and ensuing negative effect on perceptions of it as a major power. Whatever the drawbacks, the US did stand as an example of a great democracy, which helped those fighting for the same values. Now that pole of reference is no longer available as Trump dismantles a global system brick by brick. Nor are strong institutions evident in much of Europe, as major countries were hit by political instability, especially in France and Germany. The disillusionment in existing governments is apparent in the rise of the Right, now heading government in three States, and cabinet positions in six. The Left has also caught up, all exemplifying the dissatisfaction with the ‘establishment’. This is mirrored in Nepal and Bangladesh, where a virtual paralysis of government institutions is also apparent in the face of movements that demand a rather chaotic ‘return’ to lost identity and values, however distorted. In the face of all this, governments have little to offer in terms of direction.
In 2026, therefore, expect more political and social instability, and business running for cover amidst structural shifts. For India, these are serious issues. Its biggest USP as the world’s largest democracy is unlikely to find much traction. No one cares. As talks of a Sindoor 2 continue, dangers are higher, given the loosening of ‘just war’ parameters that once held strong in earlier wars, when neither India or Pakistan hit civilian centres deliberately. The next round will almost certainly be more violent. Its narrative on terrorism has no buyers, because it’s simply not violent enough to attract attention compared to bloodletting of major wars. True, the government has kept growth at a rapid clip, its costs have been uneven and massive. Apart from life threatening air pollution across almost the entire north, climate disasters were recorded in 331 days of 334 days in 2025, with severe crop damage across 17.4 mn hectares. Polluted rivers and degrading forest cover are dangerous portents for the future, all part of choices made for development.
True also that this is a pattern followed by other countries like China as they strove to catch up with major economies. But in this severe global churn, Delhi must see opportunity where disaster lurks. With the ambition of leading the Global South, who are the receiving end of this systemic upending, India can lead the charge on regaining lost values. This country bases itself not just on the Ramayan, but a hundred other epics like the Tirukurral, not to mention the harsh reality of the Arthashastra, all of which emphasised the connection between men and man and all life without exception, each connected to the other. The precept of Vasudhaiva Kutumbukum sought to encapsulate this, not as a pretty national exercise, but as a functioning principle for national security. India needs global stability and a reasonable amity, to pull through a hugely troubling time. That means internal sagacity, and external amity. As of now, both are in short supply. But it could be reversed. All it takes is a solid political message from the top grounded in values that were once habitual to this country; work at the ground level to see that the message sinks in, and external diplomacy that espouses these values strongly. As all of this filters down, the soldier on the border is clear on the values that he’s fighting for. That’s vital. But be warned. This is not about political dexterity. It has to come from the heart. The alternative of doing nothing is too frightening to think of.
This article is authored by Tara Kartha, former director, National Security Council Secretariat, New Delhi.
