With the advent of Trump, Pakistan shifts track
This article is authored by Tara Kartha, director, (Research and Analysis), Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi.
As the burnt cars and litter are removed from the well-paved streets of Islamabad, it’s as if the massive protests never took place. At the best of times, there is little interest in the all too frequent protests, usually designed by the army to unseat one or the other candidate. This time things are different, in ways that make it rather unique, and, therefore, unpredictable. This is no set manoeuvre, though even in the chaos, there is a familiar pattern of army fine-tuning. Besides, there are some other curious actions by an army that has now instituted itself firmly in the seat of power.
First, the recent protests were on a scale unseen in recent times, in support to a jailed leader. Nawaz Sharif incarceration in 2018, for instance, hardly raised a stir. It’s not just that. Imran’s supporters span not just the masses, but also the elite, the middle class, retired army officers, and families of those serving as seen in the May 9 protests. That didn’t prevent the chief of army staff, General Asim Munir, from sacking even senior officers, and arresting people in their hundreds. This time around there is a degree of restraint by both sides. What is reported is six dead including four in a bizarre incident where paramilitary forces were run over by speeding security forces vehicles. Further, there were clearly continuous negotiations with the leadership, with Bushra Bibi and chief minister Amin Ali Gandapur, ‘persuaded’ to leave the scene precipitately. In the end, it was a retreat, with office bearers resigning their posts. This is no repeat of May 9. The establishment was able to smother publicity inside the country, with the mainstream media hardly picking up the stories. Those who did, like Matiaullah Jan, have been charged with terrorism. But much to Pakistan’s dismay, Khan’s supporters protested in at least 10 major United States (US) cities.
Second, are the demands. The cry of Bushra Bibi, the third wife of the 72-year-old Khan for his release may have been dented by some incautious words about the Saudis being against Khan. She’s no figure of unity, given her friends like Farah Khan have been charged with money laundering. A second demand is more important though less of a crowd puller. That is for the roll back of one of the most regressive pieces of legislation that Pakistan has ever seen. The 26th Amendment takes away the Supreme Court’s suo motu powers, sets the appointment of the chief justice at three years, and empowers the establishment to appoint whom it pleases, ignoring seniority. If they go complaining about interference by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), as six high court judges did in March, legislation has increased the number of judges at the top from 16 to 34. Plenty to choose from. Meanwhile a new chief justice Yahya Afridi,has been appointed under the new amendment. He’s the first from the tribal areas to hold this office. Clearly there will be no more setting aside of cases that previous Chief Justice Faez Isa once termed ‘frivolous’ such as the charge of an illegitimate child. Meanwhile, the Army Act has been changed to give the chief five years instead of three. The retirement age of all three chiefs has been done away with. That’s ominous for Khan. Unsurprisingly, the great leader is making pro-army noises from his cell. He needn’t worry. The army has no plans (as yet) of hanging him on the end of a rope. Meanwhile, the wide expectations of more violent protests may not be a reality. The message is clear. Asim Munir is here to stay.
Third, are some curious manoeuvres by the army. A sudden spike in attacks against the Chinese, with six this year, as against three in 2021, and one each in preceding years is notable. Curiously, the Besham attack which killed five Chinese was blamed by the army on Afghan nationals rather than the TTP (Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan). Kabul pointedly observed that the attack had occurred “in an area…under tight security cover of the Pakistani army…” . The Taliban spokesman called it an attempt to erode rapidly warming Taliban Chinese relations. Months later came an attack on a convoy carrying ambassadors and senior envoys, also blamed on the Taliban. But as analysts noted, the route was only known to Pakistan security agencies. Then came the Karachi airport attack that killed two Chinese, who were part of a group heading to a site. Again, the attackers seemed to know exactly which flight the Chinese were coming in, and the timing of the convoy. That’s extraordinary laxity in a security state. That lead to an unprecedented spat, with the Chinese embassy demanding action and the Pakistan foreign office publicly declaring ‘displeasure’ at Chinese ire. That’s normally considered suicidal. As Ayesha Siddiqa notes, the issues is not Pakistani capability but intent. It seems that Pakistan is demonstrating a cooling off on China, a strategy that has been followed at least since COAS Bajwa’s time.
Considering the whole picture, it seems in the run up to the swearing in of President Trump, Pakistan is desperately seeking US attention. In this it will do anything to keep the political situation stable to attract US investment. Imran Khan is in the same boat. He has since withdrawn his charges against the US, and is seeking its help. Given the never-ending tenure of the army chief and a hijacked judiciary that might be wise. But most unsettling is the change of track away from its ‘iron brother’ in an attempt to get US funding and technology. Given a future US presidency that works on deal making, that might be an unrealistic ambition. Pakistan has nothing to offer, given the end of the Afghan war, and a Taliban that seems to be getting its act together in terms of governance. No one’s all that interested in Afghanistan anymore. Desperate times require desperate measures.
This article is authored by Tara Kartha, director, (Research and Analysis), Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi.
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