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2024 warmest year on record for India: IMD

By, New Delhi
Jan 02, 2025 04:03 AM IST

The year was also the hottest ever for the earth as a whole, with the average air temperature between January and November more than 1.5°Cabove normal.

The previous year was India’s warmest on record with the annual mean air temperature 0.65°C above normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday— a grim record in lockstep with the world at large, which has been heating relentlessly fuelled by the climate crisis

The weather agency also issued its January-March forecast, not ruling out similar weather shocks in 2025.(HT file photo)
The weather agency also issued its January-March forecast, not ruling out similar weather shocks in 2025.(HT file photo)

The weather agency also issued its January-March forecast, not ruling out similar weather shocks in 2025 and predicting that temperatures will remain above normal this month, with rainfall expected to be above average across the country.

IMD data showed that 2024 was the hottest overtaking 2016, when the mean temperature was 0.54°C above normal on the back of a bruising El Nino that also led to an excess monsoon pattern, which in turn resulted in widespread flooding and crimped food crop output.

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“The annual mean air temperature has been showing an increasing trend in recent times due to climate change. This year too, it has been higher than recent years. At 0.65°C above normal, it is the highest ever since records are available from 1901,” IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said during an online press briefing.

The year was also the hottest ever for the earth as a whole, with the average air temperature between January and November more than 1.5°Cabove normal, according to at least four global data sets — the first time that the world breached the threshold for warming agreed upon as a ceiling at the Paris climate summit in 2015.

El Nino, a climate pattern characterised by the warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, was largely responsible for the surging temperatures in 2024, said experts, adding that even as this pattern emerged in July 2023 and withered out by April 2024, it left a lasting impact across the world.

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This translated to above-average temperatures across India for much of the year and a relatively muted start to the winter. It also affected the monsoon, which was 8% above normal, with extreme rain pummelling crops and raising food prices.

Experts said 2016 also clocked record temperatures due to the effects of an El Nino, with the average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas 0.94°C above normal.

Experts said while El Nino is likely to have played a role in both these years, the accelerated climate crisis and global warming are other factors leading to higher temperatures.

“If we see since 2016, we are seeing above normal temperature, so while El Nino may have played a role, increased global warming through both national and International data is evident,” said Aarti Khosla, director at the think-tank Climate Trends.

She said that year-on-year, we are seeing signs of a warmer earth, which is also now reflecting in data each year. “Even on years where El Nino hasn’t been dominant, they have been warmer than usual,” she added.

Data from 1991-2020 is used to calculate the country’s long-period average (LPA) temperature. IMD data showed the seasonal mean temperature variation was highest in the post-monsoon period (October to December) at +0.83°C above this LPA. This was followed by the monsoon season (June to September), when the variation was +0.71°C above normal.

While the annual monthly maximum temperature was 0.40°C above normal, nights were warmer, averaging 0.90°C above normal for the country.

IMD data showed that this year, July, August, September and October were the warmest for the country in terms of average minimum temperature, hovering between 0.59-1.78°C above normal.

In November, the European climate agency Copernicus said 2024 was likely to end as the warmest year on record and the first year with a global average temperature 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Sharing data for December, IMD said the all-India rainfall figure stood at 27.6mm against a normal mark of 15.9mm, making it the ninth wettest December since 1901 and the country’s wettest since 2001. This was largely down to intense rainfall over South Peninsular region, where 91.5mm of rainfall was recorded — the third highest since 1901.

It said northwest India and parts of Central India recorded normal to below normal maximum temperature in December against a forecast of above normal temperature. Similarly, parts of northwest India saw normal to below normal minimum, against a forecast of normal to above normal temperature.

IMD also forecast that a weak La Nina – the inverse of an El Nino – would emerge from January and likely last till March. However, it is not expected to significantly affect India during this period.

“La Nina is expected to set in from January, but it will not persist for long,” Mohapatra said. “This La Nina is also not expected to be moderate, so I don’t think it will have much impact because it will be short-lived. With a weak La Nina, we cannot say that extreme heat will not be recorded this year,” he said.

Temperature forecasts for January showed the monthly minimum temperature is expected to be above normal over many parts of the country except some parts of east, northwest and west central India. The monthly maximum in January is also likely to be above normal in most parts of the country, except some pockets in northwest, central and adjoining east India.

In its rainfall forecast for the first three months of the year, IMD said north India is most likely to record below normal rainfall (<86% of LPA). However, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is expected to be around normal during these three months (88-112% of LPA). In January specifically, north India is likely to see above normal rainfall (>122 % of LPA), IMD added.

“This means north India will see good rain in January, but not much in February or March. Over these three months, above normal rainfall is likely particularly in southern India,” Mohapatra said.

“If we look at coldwave possibilities too, above normal coldwave days are only expected in western and central India in January. Coldwave days will be slightly below normal in northern India,” he said.

In 2024, India saw four cyclonic storms over the Indian Ocean. This included two severe cyclonic storms (Remal and Dana) and two cyclonic storms in Asna and Fengal.

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