The study said that its worst-case scenario projects around 729,000 coronavirus disease-caused deaths on August 1, 2021.(AP)
The study said that its worst-case scenario projects around 729,000 coronavirus disease-caused deaths on August 1, 2021.(AP)

Daily Covid-19 deaths in India could peak over 5000 in next 15-16 days: Study

However, the study also suggested that universal mask coverage (95 per cent), if attained by next week, can save around 70,000 lives in the reference case scenario by August this year.
By hindustantimes.com | Edited by Deepali Sharma, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
UPDATED ON APR 24, 2021 11:08 PM IST

A new study has projected that India’s daily deaths due to the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) could peak as high as 5600 on May 10 and that additional 329,000 fatalities are estimated between April 12 and August 1. The study, 'COVID-19 projections’, was conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington which published a summary on April 15 that evaluated the grim situation in the country and projected around 665,000 deaths by August this year.

The study said that its worst-case scenario projects around 729,000 cumulative coronavirus disease-caused deaths on August 1, 2021. However, the study also suggested that universal mask coverage (95 per cent), if attained by next week, can save around 70,000 cumulative lives in the reference case scenario by August this year. Around 85,000 lives will also be saved considering the projected Covid-19 vaccine rollout, the study said, where it estimated that over 700 million people will be vaccinated by August 1.

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According to the study, Covid-19 is the fifth major cause of deaths in the country this week. This was based on the estimation that daily deaths in the last week increased to 1,500 per day on an average in contrast to 970 deaths per day before. The infection detection rate in the country was revealed to be eight per cent, and the estimates of the study suggest that nearly 24 per cent of the population in the country have been infected as of April 12.

Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Punjab, which have been showing the highest rise in the number of Covid-19 cases, according to the Union health ministry’s data, have a daily death rate of greater than 4 per million, the study said.

India is fighting a dangerous second wave of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) amid a heavy oxygen supply crunch. The highly, seemingly contagious second wave took the Covid-19 positivity rate of the country to 15.37 per cent from being less than 1.50 per cent during the initial weeks of February. The death toll of the country currently stands at 189,544 after more than 2600 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours, the health ministry’s data showed on Saturday morning.

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