Heavy rain likely in central India
The monsoon is likely to be very active over northwest and central India over the next two weeks with high chances of extremely heavy rains (over 20 cm) in parts of Gujarat and eastern Rajasthan, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday. Unlike in July, the monsoon has been active in the first half of this month with the country receiving 13% excess rain from August 6 to 12.
IMD said 12% of 685 districts have got large excess rains (60% excess or more), 17% have recorded excess rains (20 to 59% excess), while 42% are in normal (19% deficient to 19% excess) and 26% in deficient (20 to 59% deficient) and 3% in large deficient category (more than 60% deficiency) since the monsoon season began on June 1.
Above normal monsoon rains are expected in August and September because of several consecutive low-pressure areas forming over the Bay of Bengal. But chances of flooding and extremely heavy rain are high in Gujarat and Rajasthan over the weekend and coming week. All districts of Gujarat recorded large excess rains except Gandhinagar on Thursday. Many districts of eastern Rajasthan have also recorded large excess rains.
The low-pressure area over north coastal Odisha is likely to move west-northwestwards to north Madhya Pradesh during the next 2-3 days. Another low-pressure area is likely to form over northwest Bay of Bengal on August 19. “Monsoon trough likely to shift southwards and remain active. The convergence of strong southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea and easterlies from the Bay of Bengal at lower levels very likely over northwest and central India. Southwest monsoon is very likely to be in an inactive phase with above-normal rainfall activity over central India, northern parts of south Peninsular India and most parts of plains of northwest India,” an IMD statement said.
Heavy to very heavy rain was likely in Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Ghat areas of central Maharashtra, eastern Rajasthan and parts of central India. Extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) is also likely over Gujarat and eastern Rajasthan during the next 2-3 days.
“The Madden Julian Oscillation (an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, mainly observed over the Indian and Pacific Ocean, according to UK Met Office) which was over the western Indian Ocean has started moving towards the Pacific,” said D S Pai, senior scientist, IMD. “This was helped with formation of low-pressure areas over western Pacific, the remnants of which are forming low-pressure areas over Bay of Bengal leading to several low-pressure areas forming that can intensify monsoon rain over India. The sea surface temperatures over the Bay of Bengal are also above average.”
In July, there were no low-pressure areas over the Bay of Bengal and hence the monsoon was subdued over the core monsoon region (parts of east and central India). Pai said monsoon rains are likely to be above average both in August and September.
The monsoon trough is likely to remain active and positioned near to its normal position during most days of the week between August 20 and 26. “Rainfall activity is very likely to be normal to above normal over most parts of the country, except Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar, where it is likely to be below normal. Thus the currently above normal rainfall activity for the country will continue to remain above normal for the next two weeks. It may lead to inundation of low-lying areas on some occasions over central parts of the country,” IMD said.
“Due to formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon trough being near its normal position, we can expect very heavy rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan in the next 2 to 3 days and very active monsoon conditions over the country in the next two weeks,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
Monsoon rains are presently 2% excess over the country with 22% excess over the south peninsula, 19% deficient over northwest India, 8% surplus over east and northeast India.
Very light rain is expected around Red Fort on Saturday morning and may coincide with the Independence Day function, said Delhi’s Regional Meteorological Centre.
Delhi recorded heavy rain on Thursday with around 83.8 mm recorded at the Safdarjung weather station. “The monsoon trough is slightly south of its normal position passing along Jaipur, Gwalior, Sidhi, Daltonganj, Jamshedpur to the Bay of Bengal. There is high moisture incursion towards northwest India both from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. So we are expecting light rain in the capital on the Independence Day,” said Kuldeep Shrivastava, head, Regional Weather Forecasting Centre.
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