Heavy rain to persist in south, northeast India till October

In its weekly weather report, IMD said that northwest India will continue to remain dry but weather models aren’t showing the commencement of monsoon withdrawal yet

Heavy and widespread rain in peninsular and northeast India will persist till October, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in its weekly weather report. Northwest India will continue to remain dry and Rajasthan is likely to experience dry weather but weather models are not showing monsoon withdrawal commencement from northwest India as yet.

Due to heavy rain over south India and parts of northeast India, rain deficiency of 30% in the week ending September 9 was not only compensated last week but an excess of 7% was recorded this week.(Representational Image)

Due to heavy rain over south India and parts of northeast India, rain deficiency of 30% in the week ending September 9 was not only compensated last week but an excess of 7% was recorded this week, according to the weekly report. “A change in weather patterns which resulted in above normal rain in the past week from -30% we reached 7% excess as far as weekly rain is considered. This change was possible because of a low-pressure system that formed over Andhra Pradesh coast, a cyclonic circulation over west coast of India which brought rainfall throughout south peninsular India. Monsoon trough shifted to the foothills during the end of the week, causing heavy to extremely heavy rain in parts of northeast India,” said Soma Senroy, scientist at the National Weather Forecasting Centre of IMD.

A fresh low-pressure area is likely to develop over northwest Bay of Bengal around September 20 which will bring heavy and widespread rains to east, northeast and peninsular India till end of September while northwest India is likely to record large deficiency. Between September 18 and 24, above normal rain is likely over west peninsular coast as westerlies strengthen due to development of the low-pressure area.

There is a 12.6% deficiency in rain over the country in September; 52.8% deficiency over northwest India; 33.2% deficiency over central India; 1.9% deficiency over east and northeast India and 75.6% excess rain over peninsular India. In the monsoon season since June 1 there is 6.7% excess rain over the country; 15.1% deficiency over northwest India; 13.7% excess over central India; 1.9% excess over east and northeast India and 27.7% excess over south peninsula.

“The circulation patterns are not suggesting withdrawal of monsoon yet. We are not seeing significant reduction in moisture. Westerly winds will strengthen next week due to development of low pressure area,” explained K Sathi Devi, head, national weather forecasting centre.