Monsoon likely to enter partial ‘break’ phase from today: IMD

There was a “break” in monsoon rains from June 29 to July 11 and a very weak monsoon was witnessed in the first two weeks of August also leading to significant deficit in rains in the month across the country.

Monsoon is likely to enter a partial “break” phase once again with scanty rainfall expected over northwest and west India for at least a week from Monday onwards, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

People wade through a flooded road after heavy downpour in Bathinda, Sunday (PTI)

There was a “break” in monsoon rains from June 29 to July 11 and a very weak monsoon was witnessed in the first two weeks of August also leading to significant deficit in rains in the month across the country. Monsoon revived over northwest India on August 19 but it is likely to weaken again from August 24, IMD said.

“Heavy rainfall is expected till end of Sunday but rainfall over northwest India is expected to reduce significantly from Monday. We are expecting weak monsoon conditions to set in again for at least 5 days. No major rainfall is expected over the west coast or northwest India but the eastern states particularly northeast will receive rainfall. This is mainly due to shifting of the monsoon trough to the north over the Himalayan foothills. So, the plains will remain largely dry,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist, IMD.

“We are entering a partial break monsoon phase. It will be the third during this season. Due to the monsoon trough shifting to the north most parts of Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan will remain dry till the end of month. No significant rain is expected over Gujarat or Maharashtra either. There may be rains over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It will be a partial break in monsoon because rains are expected to continue over east and northeast India,” explained Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather.

There is a 26.6% rain deficit in August over the country with 27.1% deficiency over northwest India, 35.4% deficiency over central India, 29.9% deficiency over south peninsula and 6.6% deficiency over east and northeast India. During monsoon season since June 1, there has been 8% deficiency in rain over the country with 11% deficiency over northwest India, 11% deficiency over east and northeast India, 10% deficiency over central India and 4% excess over peninsular India.

The western end of the monsoon trough is lying to the south of its normal position and the eastern end lying to the north of its normal position. The western end is very likely to shift gradually northwards from August 23. A cyclonic circulation is lying over northeast Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh in lower tropospheric levels. Another cyclonic circulation is lying over Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka coasts.

A trough is running from northeast Rajasthan to south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka coasts across central parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Rayalaseema and north Tamil Nadu. Due to these meteorological conditions, rainfall activity over plains of northwest India and adjoining Central India is likely to continue till August 23 and reduce thereafter, IMD predicted.

Rainfall is expected to reduce over Maharashtra and the west coast also but scattered to fairly widespread activity very likely over southern Peninsular India during next 5 days. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal till August 24.

There is likely to be enhanced rainfall activity over northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar from August 24. Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls is very likely to continue over northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar till August 24, and increase in intensity thereafter with isolated very heavy rainfall over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and Meghalaya till August 2, IMD said.

Isolated extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) is also likely over Assam and Meghalaya on August 25.