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Quad meet unlikely this year amid trade tensions between India, US
Before India-US relations were hit by unprecedented strains this summer, the four members of Quad were eyeing the possibility of holding the summit in November
The Quad Summit is unlikely to be held this year, with a mix of domestic issues of member states and trade differences between the US and India and Japan holding up the crucial meeting that was to be hosted by New Delhi, people familiar with the matter said.
Before India-US relations were hit by unprecedented strains this summer due to the 50% tariff imposed on Indian goods by President Donald Trump, the four members of Quad were eyeing the possibility of holding the summit in November. But preparations virtually came to a standstill in recent months and there is no clarity as of now on when the summit will be convened, officials of three Quad member states said on condition of anonymity.
“A summit this year looks very unlikely. Such meetings require weeks of preparations and even the basic modalities haven’t been worked out,” one official said.
A second official added, “It’s very difficult to see President Trump visiting in November, especially given the way trade negotiations between India and the US are poised. A visit is likely to go ahead only if there is a breakthrough on trade issues.”
While the foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan and the US attended the UN General Assembly in New York last month and there were bilateral engagements between some of them, there was no meeting under the Quad framework. The people noted it would be difficult to firm up deliverables or outcomes that would be expected from a meeting such as the Quad Summit. Officials of two Quad states said basic logistical arrangements for a summit, such as booking of hotel rooms, had not been completed.
In the coming weeks, the focus of the Indian government will be on the election to the state assembly in Bihar, expected to be held in the first half of November, while Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set to elect a new leader this week following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Even after the leader is elected, Japan’s immediate focus will remain on domestic issues as the new government settles in.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is to visit India later this year, likely in early December.
Adding to the complications associated with convening the summit are sharp differences between India and the US on trade-related issues, despite a recent thaw after a phone conversation between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and meetings between senior Indian and American officials. The US has continued to put pressure on India over purchases of Russian oil and defence hardware as part of its efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and Washington recently revoked a sanctions waiver that allowed New Delhi to develop the Iranian port of Chabahar and raised the fee for H-1B visas to $100,000.
There are also indications that the US has linked India’s purchases of Russian oil to the trade negotiations, the people said.
Though the US and Japan finalised a framework trade deal in July, some lingering concerns regarding tariffs on automobiles were worked out only recently. However, LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, a top contender to win the party’s leadership race, has suggested the trade deal with the US could be renegotiated if it doesn’t serve Tokyo’s interests.
“We must stand our ground if anything unfair, that is not in Japan’s interests, comes to light in the process of implementing the deal,” Takaichi said, referring to a $550-billion Japanese investment fund that is part of the agreement to cut US tariffs. “That includes a potential renegotiation,” she said.
When external affairs ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal was asked about the status of the Quad Summit at a media briefing last week, he replied: “We see [Quad] as a valuable forum for discussion on shared interests in a number of areas. As far as the leaders’ level summit is concerned or is to be scheduled, [this] will happen through diplomatic consultations among the four partners.”
