Record ocean, land temps continue; daily global sea ice extent reaches new low

Arctic sea ice reached its lowest monthly extent for February at 8% below average, the third consecutive month in which the sea ice extent set a record for the corresponding month

Record ocean and land temperatures that started last year continued with daily global sea ice extent combining the sea ice in both polar regions reaching a new all-time low early February. It remained below the previous February 2023 record for the rest of the month, a European Union’s Earth Observation Programme Copernicus Climate Change Service report said on Thursday.

February 2025 was the third warmest February globally. (AFP/Representative)

Arctic sea ice reached its lowest monthly extent for February at 8% below average. It was the third consecutive month in which the sea ice extent set a record for the corresponding month. Antarctic sea ice reached its fourth-lowest monthly extent for February at 26% below average. The daily sea ice extent may have reached its annual minimum near the month’s end.

The new record low for the Arctic in February is not an all-time minimum. Arctic sea ice is approaching its annual maximum extent, which typically occurs in March, the report said.

February 2025 was the third warmest February globally, with an average surface air temperature of 13.36°C, 0.63°C above the 1991-2020 average for February, and only marginally warmer, by 0.03°C, than the fourth warmest of 2020.

February 2025 was 1.59°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average, the pre-industrial level. It was the 19th month in the last 20 months for which the global average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.

The global average temperature for boreal winter 2025 (December 2024 to February 2025) was the second highest on record at 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average for these three months.

The 12 months between March 2024 and February 2025 recorded 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.59°C above the pre-industrial level.

“February 2025 continues the streak of record or near-record temperatures observed throughout the last two years. One of the consequences of a warmer world is melting sea ice, and the record or near-record low sea ice cover at both poles has pushed global sea ice cover to an all-time minimum,” said European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts strategic lead (climate) Samantha Burgess.

Seas clocked record heat in February. The average sea surface temperature (SST) for February 2025 was the second-highest value on record for the month, 0.18°C below the February 2024 record. “SSTs remained unusually high in many ocean basins and seas, though the extent of these regions decreased compared to January, especially in the Southern Ocean and in the southern Atlantic. Some seas, such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea, on the contrary, saw larger record-breaking areas than last month,” said the Copernicus Climate Change Service report.

Further warming was expected as La Nina conditions were expected to wane between March and May. The weak La Niña event that emerged in December 2024 is likely to be short-lived and may disappear between March and May, according to the latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) update.

Forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction indicate that the current cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to normal.

There is a 60% probability that conditions will shift back to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during March-May 2025, increasing to 70 % for April-June 2025.

The probability of El Niño developing is negligible during the forecast period (March to June). There is uncertainty in the long-lead forecasts due to the boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known challenge in long-term forecasts of El Nino and La Niña.

La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns. It typically brings climate impacts that are the opposite of El Niño, especially in tropical regions like cooler winters, above normal rainfall, etc.

The impacts of naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino on climate patterns are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns, WMO said.