How elections are won and lost in India

From the electoral mood and political narrative to organisational strength and social coalitions, various factors can sway elections. This round of polls is no exception

There is a cliché that elections are won and lost during campaigns. This has given rise to many myths about Indian politics. The voter has been portrayed as fickle, someone who can be swayed in a matter of weeks through a high-blitz campaign. It has also created the myth that each assembly election is not just a referendum on the state government, but also the Centre. This election season is no exception.

Each state election is independent of the other. A victory boosts the morale of the party. But even the elections that get labelled as a semi-final, such as UP in 2022, are unlikely to shape the verdict in 2024. (AP)

Many of these assertions, often leading to contradictory predictions, are stacked by believers to produce a narrative they’d like to come true. The restrictions on large rallies in Uttar Pradesh (UP) has led many to argue that political parties with strong online infrastructure to disseminate information — read, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — will have an advantage over their competitors. These restrictions have limited the Samajwadi Party (SP)’s efforts to mount an effective campaign against the incumbent. At the same time, you also hear analysts arguing that the defections of many legislators from the BJP to the SP indicate that the BJP is likely to lose. For them, many of these defectors are seasoned politicians and they have a good sense of hawa (mood). Both these assertions fly in the face of the results in the 2021 West Bengal assembly election. The BJP had a stronger social media presence and succeeded in attracting many top leaders from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the run-up to the polls. Yet, the TMC won for the third consecutive time and even increased its vote and seat tally. To be sure, there were no restrictions on rallies through most of the campaign season in West Bengal.

While the role of campaigns in shaping the outcome may be true in American politics, as the campaign to elect the president runs for more than a year-and-a-half, in India, where a large number of voters depend on the State for their well-being, campaigns alone do not make or break elections. Campaigns can shift the momentum in favour of a party, but it is difficult for even well run campaigns to overturn historical factors operating in the electoral arena. No matter how well coordinated a campaign the BJP mounts in Punjab, it cannot suddenly become a major party there. The same is true for the Congress in UP.

Elections are won over accumulated factors — the sentiment in favour (or against) the incumbent, credibility of leadership, the political narrative, organisational resources of parties, and social coalition on the ground, among others. It is thus important to understand when campaigns can alter the nature of structural constraints and create opportunities for political parties to effectively stack these factors in their favour.

First, public opinion surveys have consistently pointed out that there are a significant number of voters who decide whom to vote for during the campaign and the last two days before polling. While a larger proportion of them swing to perceived winners, there is no reason why prior beliefs about the incumbent’s performance should be different among such voters in comparison to those who made up their minds before the election. Also, organisational resources and social coalitions of parties are not created out of thin air. Nor can this advantage be undone in a matter of weeks.

Second, there are several examples to support the claim that it is difficult for even efficiently managed campaigns to overturn the structural constraints. For example, the Congress’s campaign in the 2017 Gujarat assembly elections came with a strong narrative, filled with energy and enthusiasm, and yet, it failed to trump the BJP. Similarly, despite agrarian distress and a strong anti-incumbency sentiment during the 2018 Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, the polls did not result in an outright victory for the Congress. It is not that only the Congress fails to capitalise on campaigns. The BJP too, ran a spirited campaign in the 2018 Rajasthan assembly election, with Narendra Modi leading the charge, but couldn’t overturn the sentiment against its incumbent Vasundhara Raje Scindia government.

Third, our information-gathering exercise is based on limited data, and conclusions are often clouded by preconceived notions — especially when all the factors do not point in one direction. Even the best politicians rarely know the direction of hawa, leave alone the magnitude of it. If they did, turncoats would have been winning elections with greater odds and we would have been witnessing higher than usual rates of defections.

Fourth, what campaigns can do is to energise the base and increase the turnout. And, for this reason alone, political parties spend energy and resources to mount an effective campaign. Leaders’ roles become important and campaigns become crucial during multi-phased elections. They offer parties a chance to course-correct. For example, the BJP-Janata Dal (United) alliance was trailing in the first-phase in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. It then made an extra effort to clear the confusion caused by the Lok Janshakti Party’s exit and made assurances that Nitish Kumar would be the chief minister even if the BJP won a larger number of seats. The National Democratic Alliance levelled the competition in the second phase and took a narrow lead in the third.

Finally, each state election, or for that matter round of elections, is independent of the other. Of course, a victory boosts the morale of the party and gives it greater confidence. But even the elections that get labelled as a semi-final, such as UP in 2022, are unlikely to shape the verdict in 2024. Even if the BJP manages to retain some of the states, including UP, it doesn’t guarantee it a smooth passage in 2024. And, a defeat will not seal its fate, as the semi-final only gives the winner a chance to play the final.

Rahul Verma is fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi 

The views expressed are personal