Who are Europe’s newest troublemakers?

Corruption and inflation are boosting eurosceptic populists

WHEN PETER MAGYAR beat Viktor Orban in Hungary’s election in April, most European leaders were relieved. “For the first time in years, there are no Russians in the room,” joked Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, at a European Union summit that month. Look to the south-east, however, and they have less to cheer. On May 8th Rumen Radev, a Russia-friendly populist, was sworn in as Bulgaria’s prime minister after winning an election in late April. On May 5th Romania’s liberal prime minister was forced out in a no-confidence motion that was backed by both the centre-left and a rising nationalist-right party.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev attends a press conference (REUTERS)

Might Bulgaria and Romania replace Hungary as the EU’s awkward squad? Economic malaise is causing political turbulence in both countries. Last year prices rose by 3.5% in Bulgaria and 6.8% in Romania, well above the bloc’s average of 2.5%. Growth remains strong in Bulgaria, but Romania’s GDP was 1.7% lower in the first quarter than in the same period last year. All this is pushing voters towards populists.

Mr Radev, a former air-force commander, had served since 2017 as president, a mostly ceremonial role. He campaigned for prime minister on an anti-graft platform, vowing to dismantle Bulgaria’s “oligarchic model of governance” and restore judicial independence. He linked the country’s corruption, among the worst in the EU according to Transparency International, an NGO, to its income inequality, the highest in the bloc.

After eight elections in five years, Bulgarians were exhausted and looking for someone to break the gridlock. Mr Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party won nearly 45% of the vote, crushing the corrupt parties of power and established liberal anti-corruption outfits alike. He will be the first prime minister in decades whose party has an outright majority in parliament. “Fatigue stemming from the lack of a single party offering a clear alternative” played a role, says Daniel Smilov of the Center for Liberal Strategies, a Bulgarian think-tank.

The new government quickly demonstrated its populist bona fides. On May 11th it proposed “fair-price” benchmarks for consumer goods, forcing retailers to justify price increases or face fines. Economic populism runs through Mr Radev’s approach to Russia as well. The prime minister claims that sanctions “harm the economies of Russia and the EU” and wants to increase imports of Russian fossil fuels (which the bloc wants to end by 2027). Europe, he argues, should stop selling arms to Ukraine and push for a quick peace deal. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s press secretary, said he was “impressed”.

Romania’s centrists are on the back foot, too. A year ago Nicusor Dan, a liberal anti-corruption campaigner, beat George Simion of the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) in a presidential election. But the government he appointed lacked strong support in Parliament. For months it fought for austerity measures to reduce Romania’s budget deficit (the largest in the EU). After it passed a slimmed-down budget in late March, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) left the coalition and teamed up with AUR to bring down the government.

The Social Democrats have long operated a grubby patronage system, channelling funds to local officials who drum up support for their party. They and AUR now present themselves as austerity’s opponents. “The so-called pro-Europeans have delivered nothing but taxes, war and poverty,” crowed Mr Simion after the no-confidence vote. His party is Romania’s most popular, with support at 33% in opinion polls (some ten points ahead of the PSD’s).

Should the EU’s liberals worry about a new Orban-style sub-bloc? Mr Simion has little love for Russia, but opposes aid to Ukraine, which he claims mistreats its ethnic Romanians. Should he win power, he could upend plans for Ukraine to build drones in Romania and disrupt the country’s role in training Ukrainian fighter pilots. AUR politicians have criticised SAFE, an EU defence-loan scheme, arguing that it would boost French and German armsmakers at the expense of Romanian ones. But a snap election that would allow Mr Simion to form a government is unlikely. Mr Dan says he wants to build a new coalition instead, perhaps led by a technocratic prime minister.

Mr Radev too may prove less troublesome than his words suggest. Bulgarian defence firms have boomed since the start of the war, selling Soviet-style munitions to Ukraine. Rheinmetall, a German armsmaker, is planning a €1bn ($1.2bn) shell factory in Bulgaria, financed partly by SAFE. Mr Radev will hardly want to stifle the defence industry with an arms embargo on Ukraine. “Bulgaria sees EU countries as its natural family, but reserves the right to maintain its own positions,” says Ivo Hristov, a deputy prime minister.

On corruption, Mr Radev talks a good game. He has pledged quick reforms of the country’s judicial system and dismissed the deputy head of the national-security agency for alleged political meddling. He has also launchedplans for a parliamentary anti-corruption commission. But fighting corruption is a long-term institutional commitment; one election victory may not change much.

Perhaps most worrying for Europeans in these days of transatlantic tension is his affinity with America. Mr Radev, a graduate of an American air-force fighter-pilot programme, often touts his American connections. His realist foreign-policy views have much in common with those popular in MAGA-world, and his desire to end the Ukraine war and get back to trading with Russia would go over well with J.D. Vance, Donald Trump’s vice-president. Not quite “Russians in the room”, then. But, for the likes of Mr Tusk, they’re too close for comfort.