That October chill missing this year

Over the last 10 days, Delhi's minimum temperature has been hovering around 19-20 degrees Celsius (°C), and only occasionally dipping slightly under.

This October, Delhi has been warmer than usual, and so far, that customary chill that heralds the beginning of winter has been missing.

Delhi’s minimum temperature was 20.1°C on Sunday. (Sanchit Khanna/HT Photo)

The month’s coolest day so far in the Capital was on October 15, when the minimum dropped to 17.4°C, and over the last 10 days, the minimum temperature has been hovering around 19-20 degrees Celsius (°C), and only occasionally dipping slightly under.

Delhi’s minimum temperature was 20.1°C on Sunday, three notches higher than normal for this time of the year. India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts state that similar temperatures are likely to continue till the end of the month.

However, Met department data shows Delhi’s minimum typically drops to 14°C by the end of October, and was as low as 12.5°C in 2020.

Experts said that over the past week, north-westerly winds have buffeted the National Capital Region (NCR), and the skies have been clear — two conditions ideal for a drop in the night-time mercury. However, a third, more crucial factor — snowfall in the higher reaches — is missing, resulting in the temperatures remaining unusually warm.

The month’s coolest day so far in the Capital was on October 15, when the minimum dropped to 17.4°C. (HT)

“Generally, by this time of the year, we record some snowfall in isolated parts. We have not seen active western disturbance in the last fortnight and thus, even rain is missing in the plains. Until we any see such a spell, a further dip in temperature is unlikely in the coming days,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet meteorology.

Data for the last decade shows Delhi’s lowest minimum in October was 12.5°C in October 2020 (October 29). It was 14.3°C last year (October 28); 14°C in 2022 (October 25); 14°C in 2021 (October 29) and 16.5°C in 2019 (October 23).

In 2018, the lowest was 15°C (25), 16.1°C in 2017 (26), 15°C in 2016 (29 and 30), 15.3°C in 2015 (29) and 15.6°C in 2014 (17).

An IMD official said that this October, easterly winds have also been prevalent in NCR.

“We had easterly winds prevailing in the first half of the month, and even though north-westerly winds were recorded from October 16-17, easterly winds have returned over the Indo-Gangetic Plain from late on October 26. These are warmer winds and thus don’t allow temperature to dip at night,” the official said.

IMD’s forecasts show a return of north-westerly winds is likely on October 31, with the minimum likely to dip down to 18°C by November 2. Days will also remain sunny, until either rain, or snowfall is seen in the mountains, the official added.

“The maximum should oscillate between 33-35°C in the next week,” the official said.

Delhi’s maximum was 34.2°C on Sunday, which was more than two notches above normal. It was 33°C on Saturday, which was a degree above normal. A maximum below 30°C is not uncommon for October, IMD data shows.

This October has also been drier than usual, following a wetter than normal monsoon season.

The southwest monsoon officially withdrew from Delhi on October 2 — a week later than its normal withdrawal date of September 25. The monsoon season ended with 63% more rainfall than usual in Delhi, with the Capital recording 1,029.9 mm of rain, compared to the normal of 640.3 mm. This was the highest rainfall in Delhi since 2021, and the seventh highest since 1901, IMD data showed.

However, Delhi has failed to log any rain this month so far, with October likely to end with no rain, Met officials said. Normally, Delhi receives 15.1mm of rainfall in October, the long period average (LPA) data for the month shows. “A feeble western disturbance is likely to develop towards the end of the month. This will however not bring any rain over Delhi-NCR,” said the IMD official quoted above.