Coalition dharma and the new BJP
After a decade of electoral dominance, the party may be forced to deal with demanding NDA partners in running the government
Narendra Modi appears set to begin his third consecutive term as Prime Minister (PM). But unlike in 2014 and 2019, the allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are in a position to demand their space, in fact, even force their agenda on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Thirty two seats short of a simple majority, the BJP will need to rewire its relations with allies and reformat the NDA, perhaps, along the lines it existed two decades ago. The post June 4 BJP, in office, may need to think about coalition dharma, a much-discussed phrase between 1996 and 2004, when the NDA came into being and Atal Bihari Vajpayee headed multiple coalition governments.
As it stands, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) are central to the NDA’s numbers with 16 and 12 MPs, respectively. Their leaders, N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP and Nitish Kumar of the JD(U), are experienced, shrewd and demanding politicians who are masters at manoeuvring coalitions. Accommodating their interests will be a challenge that the BJP needs to negotiate before it begins the business of governance. Pet ideological projects may have to be shelved or negotiated for the sake of coalition dharma as the BJP did in the 1990s. Consensus building will have to be the bedrock of governance even though Modi, as PM and chief minister of Gujarat, never had to negotiate the minefield of coalition politics. The BJP may also have to recalibrate its expansion plans and tailor its tactics to be on the same page with allies to let the government run smoothly. The NDA may need a seasoned politician as convenor — George Fernandes did the job for Vajpayee — to iron out wrinkles, if any become visible.
All this is important since assembly elections are due in Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra later this year, and in Bihar next year. The BJP has not done well in these states, and it has a mess in Maharashtra to sort out, where the Congress, given up for dead not too long ago, won more seats (13) than the BJP (11). The losses in Maharashtra, where the BJP is in office, have as much to do with drought and farm distress as with poor coalition management. Rising unemployment and food inflation are pan-Indian phenomena, which can singe the NDA in general, and the BJP in particular. Much depends on how the BJP leadership interprets the results and what change of course the party will take up to reconcile with the electoral losses. The situation at the Centre may need a new BJP that is more conciliatory and accommodative towards diverse interests.
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