Number Theory: Outliers within the constituencies in Lok Sabha elections - Hindustan Times
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Number Theory: Outliers within the constituencies in Lok Sabha elections

May 30, 2024 04:14 PM IST

When there is a nationally dominant party, as there was in 2014 and 2019, assembly constituencies within a parliamentary constituencies largely vote similarly .

Polling for the Lok Sabha elections is all but over. One of the narratives that has found traction from anecdotal accounts is that it is a seat-by-seat election. Whether or not this is true will only be known on June 4. Until then, past data can be used to answer a more interesting question: How coherent are parliamentary constituencies (PCs) when it comes to voting in Lok Sabha elections? Simply speaking, do parts of a PC vote differently from the overall result in the PC? The best way to answer this question is to break down PC-wise results at the assembly constituency (AC) level and see whether the winner in any constituent AC is different from that in the PC. HT has used AC-wise data on Lok Sabha elections from Trivedi Center for Political Data (TCPD) – it has this data from 1999 Lok Sabha elections onwards – to tackle this question. Here is what the data shows.

An election official puts indelible ink on the finger of an elderly voter. (AP Photo)
An election official puts indelible ink on the finger of an elderly voter. (AP Photo)
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