Karnataka Polls: Five leaders who are crucial

From PM Modi to Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, the role of these five politicians is vital in the upcoming elections

New Delhi: In the hotly-contested Karnataka assembly election, the role of five leaders are crucial for the prospects of their respective parties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge and three former chief ministers—BS Yediyurappa, Siddaramaiah and HD Kumaraswamy—have the ability to influence voters, lift up the campaign and bag a few extra seats for their parties.

This election, coming a year before the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha polls, also means that all five leaders have a greater stake in this poll.

This election, coming a year before the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha polls, also means that all five leaders have a greater stake in this poll.

Narendra Modi

“Our campaign is focused on local issues of the state. But when the Prime Minister starts his campaign, he might bring strong national issues to create a larger canvas for the election. We don’t know how that will play out,” a senior Congress leader said. A second Congress leader in Bengaluru pointed out that the PM’s popularity might be limited in some other South Indian states but in Karnataka, an aspirational state with a large number of young people coming from various states, the PM is a popular vote-catcher.

Under Modi, the BJP has expanded beyond its traditional support base of north India to North East (it rules six out of seven NE states including alliances) and made significant progress in some east Indian states such as West Bengal and Odisha. But the BJP’s clout remains limited in South India. Karnataka is the only south Indian state where the BJP is in power. For Modi, retaining power in Karnataka—where no party ran successive governments since 1989—will add to his fame as the party’s numero uno vote catcher.

Also, winning Karnataka is very important for the PM in the backdrop of the national election. In 2019, the BJP bagged 25 of 28 Lok Sabha seats from the state. After 10 years in power, it will be of vital importance for the Prime Minister and the BJP to get extra seats from south and eastern Indian states.

Mallikarjun Kharge

In the past six months since Mallikarjun Kharge has been elected as the Congress chief, no major organisational shake-up or policies have been implemented in the party. Even the reshuffle of the CWC, the party’s highest executive body, has been pending for the past two months. A decision on the Rajasthan crisis, brewing between chief minister Ashok Gehlot and former deputy CM is pending and there is no clarity as to when Kharge will host the all-important meeting of the Opposition parties.

Kharge, however, has tasted quick success electorally. With two months of presidency the Congress won Himachal Pradesh—its first victory since 2018. The Congress president, a Congress veteran with more than 50 years of experience in politics, is deeply focused on the Karnataka election. His personal appeal can help the Congress in the Hyderabad Karnataka region and his position as the party president can also help the Congress in its wider outreach in Karnataka especially among the Schedule Caste voters.

A victory in Karnataka can further consolidate his authority in the party and quell the criticism that his presidency remains under the shadow of the Gandhi family. Moreover, the victory will help him take strong decisions and form his own team in the AICC to make the Congress battle-ready for the upcoming assembly polls and the national elections of 2024.

BS Yediyurappa

What is the big difference between the 2013 election (when Congress came to power) and the 2018 (when the Congress-JDS coalition collapsed midway) for the Congress?

“(BS) Yediyurappa rejoining the BJP in 2018,” said a senior Congress leader.

From its 40 seats in 2013, the BJP secured 104 seats in 2018 as former chief minister Yeddyurappa, the BJP’s most powerful Lingayat leader, returned home. An upset Yediyurappa had quit the BJP in 2013 and floated his own outfit The Congress had swept central Karnataka to claim power with 122 seats in 2013, but it shrunk to 78 seats in the next election. It lost most of its seats in the central and northern Karnataka region.

Not only the popular Lingayat leader is back in the party but the candidate list, according to a number of leaders, also has his imprint in a large number of constituencies. If the BJP retains power, Yeddiyurappa’s importance will be difficult to be overlooked by the party brass. The former CM will be able to reclaim his strong bargaining position in the party and can influence the BJP’s policies and politics in the coastal state. Though chances of him getting back the CM’s chair is difficult given the party's mandate on age of retirement, he will continue to play a crucial role.

Siddaramaiah

Experts have often argued that the fate of the Karnataka polls are decided primarily by the OBCs—the largest electoral group in the state. Siddaramaiah, hailing from the influential Kuruba caste, is one of the tallest OBC leaders of the state. The former Congress chief minister’s appeal, however, transcends beyond his caste. He is considered to be a key architect of the Congress’ ‘AHINDA’ plan that consists of Minorities, OBCs and the Dalits. “In terms of popularity”, a party worker told this correspondent in Kolar, “Siddaramaiah is undisputed no. 1 in the Congress. DK Shivakumar (the PCC chief and Siddaramaiah’s rival) is good at managing the organisation, but he is not as popular as the former CM.”

Fighting his last election as per his announcement, Siddaramaiah would be looking for another chance to be the Leader of the Vidhan Saudha. The Congress will depend on his charisma and outreach, especially in the Old Mysuru region—the largest electoral region with roughly 64 seats.

HD Kumaraswamy

His father’s tenure as Prime Minister lasted 10 months and his tenure as the Karnataka CM in 2018 ran for 14 months before the uneasy coalition with the rival Congress ended. His father, HD Devegowda, remains a towering personality in Karnataka while Kumaraswamy remains a strong leader of the Vokkaliga community. In the Vokkaliga belt of the Old Mysuru region, Kumaraswamy’s outreach is crucial for the party.

In the 2018 election, while the Congress lost 42 seats to the BJP, the JDS, with its strong presence in southern Karnataka, lost just 2 seats. In this election, the JDS’ prospects will largely depend on Kumaraswamy’s campaign and outreach here.

But what is the best situation for Kumaraswamy?

Even the strongest supporter of the JDS knows the party cannot form the government on its own by defeating the Modi-led BJP and the Congress in this poll. But if the results produce a hung assembly, just as it did in 2018, Kumaraswamy (depending on the number of seats JDS wins) can emerge as the kingmaker in Karnataka. He will be wooed by both sides and can decide the fate of Karnataka for the next five years.

Many voters in Ramanagara and Hassan claimed that in the short tenure as the CM, Kumaraswamy worked hard for the Vokkaligas. The JDS’s stronghold of the Old Mysuru region is being targeted by both the BJP and the Congress. Both the parties need more seats in Old Mysuru to improve its chances of forming a government. If Kumaraswamy can hold on to his domain, history might reward him with another tryst in power.