COP29 president scrambles to save deadlocked talks
Developing countries refuse to commit to stronger climate action without clear financial commitments from developed nations.
The COP29 presidency moved to rescue stalled climate negotiations on Monday, appointing ministers from Egypt and Australia to broker agreement on the contentious new climate finance goal, following a week of deadlock that threatens to undermine the Baku talks.
The ministerial intervention comes as developing nations warn of a potential breakdown in negotiations over two critical issues: the scale of climate funding and expectations for enhanced climate action. Ministers from Norway and South Africa will separately lead consultations on mitigation goals in an effort to bridge the widening divide between wealthy and developing nations.
“We’ve worked closely with the Presidency... but we can’t lose sight of the forest because we’re tussling over individual trees. Nor can we afford an outbreak of ‘you-first-ism’,” UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell told the opening plenary. He delivered an unusually blunt warning about negotiating tactics, urging an end to “bluffing, brinksmanship, and pre-meditated playbooks that burn up precious time and run down the goodwill needed for an ambitious package.”
Crisis of trust
The talks face a fundamental deadlock: developing countries refuse to commit to stronger climate action without clear financial commitments from developed nations, which, particularly the Environmental Integrity Group (including Switzerland, South Korea, Mexico) and Umbrella Group (including the US, Australia, and Canada), accuse them of “blocking progress” of mitigation.
“How can these discussions take place without agreement on finance or means of implementation in developing countries?” an Indian negotiator asked, speaking on condition of anonymity. The dispute centres on implementing paragraph 28 of the Global Stocktake decision from COP28 in Dubai, which calls for tripling renewable energy capacity, phasing down unabated coal power, and transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The Like Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) group, which includes India among 30 other nations, delivered a stark message during Monday’s plenary: “This is a finance COP. Week one has been quite disappointing... We do not need an investment goal, nor a multi-layered goal. We do not want something that is pledged and forgotten. Nor do we want something that cannot be traced.”
The group emphasised that the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) “must be a cyclical goal whose quantum responds to the needs of developing countries, whose delivery can be tracked and which makes a difference to the lives of our peoples. Grant-based public finance is central to the NCQG.”
G20’s in focus
COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev highlighted the G20’s potential role in breaking the impasse. However, he indicated numbers wouldn’t be discussed until the final days: “Today we are not ready to talk about any numbers. We have different approaches now regarding structure, contributor list and quantum. We think the G7 or the donor countries need to demonstrate their leadership.”
G20 leaders convened for the first day of their two-day leaders summit in Brazil on Monday.
Simon Stiell reinforced this message with unusually direct language: “I’ve been very blunt: climate finance is not charity; it is 100% in every nation’s interest, to protect their economies and people from rampant climate impacts,” he noting that G20 represents “80% of global emissions, 85% of global GDP”.
Procedural concerns
The LMDC raised serious concerns about the negotiation process, calling for “party-driven, transparent and inclusive” negotiations where “issues must progress in a balanced manner.” They specifically requested co-facilitators to “take all Parties’ views into account to offer a level-playing field and to avoid situations where Parties end up negotiating with co-facilitators.”
Multiple negotiators suggested the talks are heading toward a “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” scenario. “There is a lot of frustration at the moment. Last week we saw some parties taking talks hostage as it became an either-or situation,” one negotiator said, speaking on background. Others noted that Rule 16 has already been invoked on several issues - meaning they could be pushed to COP30 in Brazil next year.
Adding to the concerns, Babayev revealed they haven’t begun drafting a cover text summarizing the summit’s decisions: “We are not commencing the process to develop a cover decision. From our consultations, parties priorities should be addressed under the mandated items of COP29.”
These developments unfold against a backdrop of broader challenges to international climate cooperation. Argentina’s recent withdrawal from the negotiations and uncertainty about future U.S. participation under a potential Trump presidency have raised questions about the stability of global climate commitments.
The ministerial consultations represent perhaps the last chance to bridge the divide between developing nations’ demands for substantial, predictable climate finance and developed countries’ preference for an investment-focused approach that would include private funding. Success or failure in Baku could significantly impact countries’ ability to enhance their climate commitments at COP30 next year.
