COP29 in Baku faces challenges from global conflicts and climate finance disputes, with urgent calls for action as temperatures approach critical thresholds.
The UN Climate meeting (COP29) opens on Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan, against a backdrop of unprecedented global challenges and environmental milestones. The conference faces multiple headwinds: Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and deepening disagreements over climate finance between developed and developing nations.
The stakes are particularly high as 2024 is set to become the first year when annual average temperatures breach the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. (AP)
The stakes are particularly high as 2024 is set to become the first year when annual average temperatures breach the critical 1.5 degree Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels. For India, recent estimates illustrate the growing cost of the climate crisis, with the country having faced one of its most severe year of climate impacts with extreme weather events affecting 93% of days in the first nine months of 2024, resulting in over 3,200 deaths and widespread economic damage.
Among the challenges are recent trade tensions. On November 5, the BASIC group (Brazil, China, India, and South Africa) requested a separate agenda item to discuss unilateral trade restrictions. The move reflects growing concerns about measures like the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation regulations, set to take effect in 2026.
“BASIC is of the view that UNFCCC Parties are obligated to send a clear and strong signal of commitment to multilateralism and global cooperation as the most effective and just manner to respond to climate change,” the group stated, calling for cooperative solutions rather than unilateral trade restrictions.
But the central challenge facing COP29’s Azerbaijani presidency is securing an ambitious climate finance deal, an issue that has opposing sides taking up positions on the extremes with little middle ground, observers of recent discussions have said.
Developing countries are demanding financing in the trillions annually from 2025 onwards. However, developed nations, including the United States, argue that emerging economies should also contribute, citing their increased emissions since 1990. The US has avoided specifying exact figures, suggesting only that funding could start from $100 billion or more. At a recent UN workshop in Colombia, the US characterised the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) as a “voluntary goal” for those that “choose to pay.”
The European Union has taken a firm stance. On October 14, the Council of the European Union made expanding the contributor base a prerequisite for an ambitious NCQG, citing evolving economic capabilities and increasing emissions shares since the 1990s.
The Centre for Science and Environment suggests that spending less than 1% of the global GDP (approximately US $1 trillion) annually could meet developing countries’ immediate climate needs.
The discussions overall will be against the larger backdrop of the victory of Donald Trump. Countries may either step up to fill the leadership vacuum left by an expected US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, or hesitate to take on additional responsibilities.
The World Meteorological Organisation has warned of dire consequences of inaction. Record greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 have accelerated climate change, with carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere at unprecedented rates – rising over 10% in just two decades. These elevated CO2 levels will influence temperatures for decades, even with rapid emission reductions.
Climate experts said that global geopolitics is currently in a very difficult place, but the climate crisis is going to add further suffering and tensions to the existing world order. “This is the last window of opportunity for the Global North to course correct, restore some trust in the multilateral process, and commit funds to enable the climate transition to help the Global South achieve its climate goals. Failure is not an option in Baku, no matter how tough the odds may seem,” said Avantika Goswami, programme manager, climate change, Centre for Science And Environment.
Climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology emphasised the global stakes: “Global action is essential to meaningful climate mitigation, and the United States remains the most critical player. Beyond its cumulative contributions, the U.S. still leads in per capita emissions, highlighting the need for both emission reductions and substantial investment in climate innovation and adaptation.”
Koll added that the Global South, particularly South Asia, faces severe impacts from increasingly unpredictable and intense tropical weather events, putting vulnerable populations at risk.
For India, which has experienced its most extreme year of weather events in recent history, the outcome of COP29 holds particular significance. The country’s experience in 2024 – with record-breaking temperatures, extensive flooding, and widespread agricultural damage – underscores the urgent need for both ambitious global climate action and substantial financial support for adaptation and mitigation measures in developing nations.
India formally updated its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to fight climate crisis in 2022, confirming to the United Nations apex body that it will reduce the emissions intensity of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 45% from 2005 levels by the year 2030, and to have installed capacity for non-fossil fuel-based power sources equivalent to the country’s 50% requirement by 2030.
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