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Keeping up with UP | Can caste census challenge Hindu nationalism?
The question is: Will the caste census have the same traction as Mandal? Can it actually break the Hindu bloc?
In August 1990, when the late Prime Minister Vishwanath Pratap Singh had implemented the recommendations of the Mandal Commission report granting quota to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in government jobs, Hindu consolidation was still fragile.
The Sangh Parivar had launched a mass movement for the liberation of Ram Janmabhoomi with Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) veteran LK Advani embarking on a Somnath-Ayodhya rath yatra, igniting frenzy in the country.
As the movement started mobilising Hindus as a political bloc, till then divided into castes and sub-castes, the then prime minister VP Singh played a political masterstroke. He dug out the Mandal Commission report, submitted in 1983, and since then lying buried in the dust-laden files and announced the acceptance of the Commission's recommendations on August 7, 1990.
The Mandal Commission report's acceptance stoked passions as the upper castes opposed it on the streets of the country as well as in the Supreme Court. There were self-immolations and violent protests in Delhi and elsewhere.
A nine-member bench of the apex court finally approved it in 1992, the year the disputed structure was demolished in Ayodhya. And with this, the consolidation of Hindus as a bloc also collapsed. After many twists and turns, the Ayodhya temple became a reality after the apex court’s historic judgment in 2019. But while Mandir may have won, Mandal hadn’t lost either for by this time, upper caste domination in politics had also eroded.
Caste census as Mandal 2.0
But, now once again, the stage is being set for Mandal 2.0 politics in the country, triggered by the developments in Bihar where chief minister Nitish Kumar snapped ties with his coalition partner the BJP and re-joined hands with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Their coming together gives a new push to OBC politics.
While there may be many reasons for the fallout between Nitish Kumar and the BJP, the vociferous demand and support for caste census by Nitish Kumar played a part in creating a rift in the coalition. The chief minister wanted caste census, the BJP opposed it tooth and nail, while the main opposition party, the RJD, supported it.
Bihar-based political expert Abhay Kumar says the caste census was one issue that split the coalition and paved the way for building a new alliance.
In June 2022, the Bihar chief minister organised an all-party meeting on the hot issue of caste census. The meeting had concluded with the chief minister's declaration that all parties including the BJP, were on board. However, he had said that Bihar would do a caste-based count and not survey to understand the social-economic status of these castes to pass them proportionate benefits of various affirmative actions. The chief minister fixed a timeframe of nine months.
The JD(U)-BJP coalition government fell in the second week of August 2022.
Most of the regional parties — the Samajwadi Party, Telangana Rashtra Samiti, Nationalist Congress Party, Biju Janata Dal and the YSR Congress — support caste census, which was last done and made public in 1931. Karnataka had done such a census in 2015, but its contents remain under wraps.
Of the two main national formations, the United Progressive Alliance government carried out a caste census in 2011. While the data from that census has been used to enhance the efficacy of welfare delivery, the caste breakup has not been made public, on the ground that the survey failed to capture the complexity of caste identities.
The BJP cites operational difficulties in conducting a caste census as there are thousands of castes and sub-castes – and many have different nomenclature as well as status in different states. In other words, there is no uniformity. Roughly, there are 8,000 odd castes and 6,000 OBCs.
The Centre has left it to the state governments to take a call.
But the question is will the caste census have the same traction as Mandal? Can it actually break the Hindu bloc?
Samajwadi Party national president Akhilesh Yadav says, “There is huge unemployment in the country and there are huge aspirations. Thus, caste census is not only an issue, but the need of the hour so that castes in proportion to their population gain benefits of various affirmative actions.”
Many experts are of the view that the caste census would not be a viable poll issue in the 2024 general elections while some are of the view that the opposition will have to build it aggressively, linking it with the economic welfare of the people and unemployment.
1990 and 2022: Indian politics has changed
However, much water has flowed down the Ganga between 1990 and 2022, belying the political yield of the caste census. The BJP has grown stronger, the opposition weaker.
Here are the key differences from that period:
First, the BJP in 1990 was a rising political force with the identity of a Brahmin-Bania-driven party. Thus, it oscillated between Mandal and Mandir as it realised the need for backward support to form governments in a scenario where the OBCs and Dalits were vocally assertive.
Desperate to shed its image of a Brahmin party, the BJP projected backward class leaders in the politically crucial states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh as their think tank Govindacharya demanded the party to change its “chola, chehra and chintan” (face and ideology).
Today, the BJP is a robust party ruling the Centre and several states. While maintaining its hold on the upper castes it has penetrated the OBC conglomerate.
Second, in the 1990s, the BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee was a popular mass leader, but Hindu consolidation was not the mainstay of his politics.
Comparatively, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a cult figure, whose Hindu nationalism appeals to all castes and sub-castes. The party is aggressive and has weaved the temple movement with the sentiments of patriotism and welfarism, aiding in consolidating all castes.
Third, the opposition had popular leaders like VP Singh, who carried the image of “Mr Honest” across the country. And then there were the likes of several strongmen like Chandrashekhar, Devi Lal, NT Rama Rao, HD Deve Gowda et al.
Today’s opposition is not only fragmented, but bereft of leadership with pan-India popularity. There are regional satraps whose parties have caste identities. The Congress then was on the back foot but still a force to reckon with, but today it is debilitated and caught in an unprecedented leadership crisis.
Ironically, it's the ruling BJP which is aggressively setting the poll agenda, and not the opposition. Instead, as the country is caught in the vortex of communal politics, the opposition parties too have started temple hopping and tightrope walk of keeping all castes in humour.
Nonetheless, the BJP leadership is aware of the fact that caste census can throw a spanner in their ambitious political moves to wean away marginalised sections from the OBC bloc.
Political expert Badri Narayan thinks that though caste census has the political potential to evolve into a poll issue, the question is how far? We can't ignore the fact that the Dalit movement is on the decline and BJP’s Tiranga unites all, including the OBCs. Narayan describes the BJP as an OBC party headed by a Rajput chief minister (in Uttar Pradesh). This will weaken the Mandal 2.0 impact.
Then there is also the view that caste census may not yield much dividend as nationalism is spreading across the globe and any move to divide the society may boomerang. Much would depend on the opposition's capabilities to build caste census as an emotive issue and for this, they would need a leader who can match the acumen and appeal of Narendra Modi and the organisational skills of Amit Shah. As of now, there seems to be a vacuum.
From her perch in Lucknow, HT’s resident editor Sunita Aron highlights important issues related to the elections in Uttar Pradesh
The views expressed are personal
