Parts of east and west coast in India likely to record above normal rains in 3 months
The north-east monsoon, which is approaching the southern states, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh (AP) and Telangana, is likely to be below normal this year.
However, there is likely to be above normal rainfall all along the eastern coast, including West Bengal, Odisha, and even parts of the western coast, including the entire Konkan region over the next three months, according to a statement by several meteorological organisations.
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum in its statement released on Monday said below-normal rainfall is likely between the October and December monsoon season over the southern parts of the south Asia, including some parts of extreme south-eastern India, most parts of Sri Lanka and the Maldives, which receive good amount of rainfall during their period.
Below-normal rainfall is also likely during the next three months over the north-western and northern parts of South Asia, including some areas along the Himalayan foothills, the statement said.
The consensus statement of various meteorological organisations, including World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), UK Met Office, India Meteorological Department (IMD), has cautioned that above normal rainfall is likely over the land areas around northern and central Bay of Bengal and most parts of north peninsular India.
Cool El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, which were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the beginning of the year, have turned into weak La Niña conditions by the end of August.
Latest forecasts indicate that weak La Niña conditions are likely to continue during the October to December season. La Nina is associated with normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall but below-normal precipitation during south India between October and December.
“Impact of La Nina during the post monsoon season is just the opposite of what it is during monsoon season. La Nina during the monsoon season is associated with above average rainfall. But during the post monsoon season if a cyclone develops over the Bay of Bengal, the impact can be very different and severe due to La Nina. So, we have to wait and watch,” DS Pai, a senior scientist at IMD in Pune, had said in August when WMO had announced that there is a 60% chance of a weak La Niña event developing between September and November.
Also Read: Monsoon to begin withdrawal today
The south-west monsoon is expected to withdraw from Rajasthan and Punjab and some parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Madhya Pradesh (MP) during the next two-three days. Dry weather will continue over most parts of northwest India. “All conditions of monsoon withdrawal from western parts of northwest India are now met. There has been no rainfall in Amritsar and Jaisalmer. Rainfall is reducing in other parts of Rajasthan as well. Anticyclone wind pattern is properly established and wind direction has changed to north-westerly. Temperatures in north-west India are likely to begin reducing from next week. There is a significant reduction in moisture as well,” said K Sathi Devi, head, national weather forecasting centre, IMD.
The monsoon season will officially end on Wednesday (September 30) with an excess of around 9% of rainfall.
Rainfall was 30%, 16% and 7% excess over southern peninsula, central India, eastern and north-eastern India, respectively, until September 27.
There was a 15% deficiency of rainfall over north-western parts of the country during the same period.