Mumbai crosses rain target despite deficit in August

Mumbai recorded 2,218mm of rainfall this monsoon. This exceeds IMD‘s forecast of normal rainfall of 2,205mm, with six weeks of the monsoon still to go

As of 8.30am on Monday morning, Mumbai had recorded a total of 2,218mm of rainfall this monsoon season (since June 1). This exceeds the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast of normal rainfall of 2,205mm, with six weeks of the monsoon still to go.

The monsoon in Mumbai this year has been marked by alternating phases of heavy and widespread rainfall, interspersed with long, subdued dry spells, as opposed to the rainfall uniformly spread out over the season. (HT File)

The monsoon in Mumbai this year has been marked by alternating phases of heavy and widespread rainfall, interspersed with long, subdued dry spells, as opposed to the rainfall uniformly spread out over the season.

Between July 16 and 19, for instance, the city saw two back to back high-rainfall events that killed over 30 people and dumped a whopping 30% of the total seasonal rainfall over Mumbai in just three days. The previous month, Mumbai got 43.6% of June’s average rain in just nine hours. This pattern, experts, officials, and even the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on climate change warn, bears not only a climate change signature but is likely to get pronounced in coming years.

Officials also cautioned that the chances of heavy rains in Mumbai will increase within the next 48 hours, and IMD has placed the city under a ‘yellow’ category storm alert for Wednesday, indicating that heavy rainfall in isolated locations is “very likely”.

However, Mumbai’s rainfall deficit for the month of August so far stands at minus 59%, with just 134.2mm of rain being recorded at IMD’s observatory in Santacruz, as opposed to the normal rainfall of 330mm. Officials said that rains over the next few days are unlikely to make up for the deficit in Mumbai and the rest of the Konkan coast.

Parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha – where eight districts are still seeing below normal rains this season – will benefit significantly more than parts of the Konkan during the next few days rains, according to officials and independent experts, who attributed the rains to the formation of a monsoon low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, which typically strengthens the influence of rain bearing westerly winds.

“IMD has issued heavy rainfall warnings for Maharashtra for the coming three days, especially for Marathwada. It will be good for farmers in that region and around, who are waiting for a good spell of rain for their crops,” KS Hosalikar, head of IMD’s surface instrument division in Pune, said.

“On August 17, most of Vidarbha, Parbhani, Hingoli, Jalna, Nanded, Aurangabad, Jalgaon, Dhule, Nashik and Nandurbar districts will receive light to moderate rain, which is expected to continue on 18 August, except for regions in east Vidarbha,” Tweeted Akshay Deoras, independent meteorologist and PhD researcher at the University of Reading, England.

“This low-pressure system is not expected to benefit Mumbai, Konkan, Pune district, most of Madhya Maharashtra and southern Marathwada. From 19 August, rainfall activities in many parts of Maharashtra will once again decrease substantially until the month end,” Deoras added, explaining that the monsoon as a whole remains subdued over the state.