AC use rising sharply in India, will surpass all other home appliances by 2050: Report
The ownership of air conditioners in India has tripled since 2010, reaching 24 units per 100 households, due to rising heat and increased incomes. Electricity consumption for space cooling has increased 21% between 2019 and 2022, with nearly 10% of electricity demand in India now coming from cooling requirements. The International Energy Agency predicts that household air conditioner ownership will expand ninefold by 2050, outpacing the growth of other appliances. India has achieved self-sufficiency in petroleum refining capacity and has made significant progress in bringing electricity and clean cooking access to millions of people.
New Delhi Air conditioner ownership in India has increased threefold since 2010, reaching 24 units per 100 households due to rising heat. Electricity consumption due to space cooling has increased 21% between 2019 and 2022, and today nearly 10% of electricity demand comes from space cooling requirements, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
Household air conditioner ownership is estimated to expand ninefold by 2050, outpacing the growth in ownership of all other household appliances including televisions, refrigerators and washing machines, the IEA’s World Energy Outlook has projected.
Since 2000, India has brought electricity to 810 million people, larger than the population of the European Union and the US combined, according to IEA. India has also brought clean cooking access to 655 million people since 2000, although 430 million people continue to live in households that use traditional biomass. Over the past five years, solar PV has accounted for nearly 60% of new generation capacity. India has had the single largest light-emitting diode (LED) adoption campaign in the world, with around 370 million LEDs distributed by 2023. India has also achieved self-sufficiency in petroleum refining capacity despite being a net crude oil importer, although certain petroleum products continue to be imported.
“Over the past five decades, India has witnessed over 700 heat wave events, which have claimed over 17,000 lives. Fuelled by its geographic and meteorological conditions, air conditioner ownership in India has been steadily rising with growing incomes, tripling since 2010 to reach 24 units per 100 households,” the report states.
To be sure, this doesn’t mean that 24% of households have air conditioners but that between them, 100 households have 24 ACs, while some likely have multiple ones.
The impact of cooling needs on electricity consumption is already significant. According to IEA, there is a sharp increase in demand as temperatures cross the 25°C threshold. Electricity consumption due to space cooling in India increased 21% between 2019 and 2022. Around 10% of electricity demand comes from space cooling requirements today.
By 2050, India’s total electricity demand from residential air conditioners in the current policy scenario will exceed total electricity consumption in the whole of Africa. In the policy scenario India aspires to (such as becoming carbon neutral by 2070), electricity demand for air conditioners will be nearly 15% lower in 2050 compared to current policy scenario as a result of increased use of energy-efficient air conditioners and thermal insulation in buildings. “This reduction itself is larger than the total electricity generation by several countries today, such as that of the Netherlands,” the report stated.
India is set to witness the largest energy demand growth of any country or region in the world over the next three decades. “Although India’s population growth has slowed to reach replacement levels, its urban population increases by 74% and per capita income triples by 2050. Industrial output expands rapidly, for example through a tripling of output of iron and steel, and doubling of cement, plus there is a ninefold increase in residential air conditioner ownership by 2050,” IEA said.
The latest edition of WEO describes an energy system in 2030 in which clean technologies play a significantly greater role globally. This includes almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide; solar PV generating more electricity than the entire US power system does currently; renewables’ share of the global electricity mix nearing 50%, up from around 30% today; heat pumps and other electric heating systems outselling fossil fuel boilers globally; and three times as much investment going into new offshore wind projects than into new coal- and gas-fired power plants.
“All of those increases are based only on the current policy settings of governments around the world. If countries deliver on their national energy and climate pledges on time and in full, clean energy progress would move even faster. However, even stronger measures would still be needed to keep alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C,” it added.
“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ — and the sooner the better for all of us,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement.
“Demand for space cooling and its associated energy demand is set to surge in India. Cooling is a dual issue, environmental as well as a matter of health for millions who can’t afford access to cooling. The first defence has to be focus on mitigating heat on urban scale by developing heat sinks through green-blue infrastructure, adopt appropriate urban forms while cutting down anthropogenic heat sources. On building scale, our progress on adoption of residential energy conservation code has been sluggish, the code covers aspects of climate contextual passive design as well as appropriate materials. The code is still not compulsory for most of the country, it’s adoption needs to be fast tracked. The third point is that climate appropriate low-carbon cooling technologies need to be mainstreamed with special focus on non-refrigerant based technologies,” Sugeet Grover, Programme Manager, sustainable habitat programme, CSE.