After warmest October, it may not be a cool November
Above-normal minimum temperatures are also likely over most parts of the country except some areas of northwest India
India experienced its warmest October in 123 years, with unprecedented night-time and mean temperatures across the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported on Wednesday.
The October warmth marked the fourth consecutive month of record-breaking night-time temperatures since measurements began in 1901, following similar records in July, August and September.
The normal mean temperature expected during October is 25.69° C, but this time it was 1.23°C higher at 26.92 degrees. It was also the warmest October for northwest, central and south peninsular India in terms of minimum temperatures since 1901.
IMD director general M Mohapatra attributed the unusual warmth to two primary factors. “No active western disturbance impacted the region”, he said. “The second reason is that five low pressure areas formed during October with three depressions and one cyclone, leading to more easterly winds”.
When a western disturbance passes, Mohapatra explained, there is a temporary dip in temperatures but that did not happen this year.
November may not be very different. Above normal maximum temperatures are likely over northeast, east central India, and some parts of northwest and peninsular India. Normal-to-below normal maximum temperatures are likely over west central India and adjoining areas of northwest India and north peninsular India, the IMD projected.
Above normal maximum temperatures are likely in Himalayan states in NW India, IMD has said.
Above-normal minimum temperatures are also likely over most parts of the country except some areas of northwest India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.
Over NW India, most areas are expected to record above normal minimum temperatures.
Monthly rainfall for November over south peninsular India is likely to be above normal (>123% of Long Period Average (LPA)). Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (77-123 % of LPA). But, below normal rainfall is likely over northwest India and some areas of central India, IMD has said.
During October, rainfall over the country was normal around 0.4% excess but northwest India recorded 75% rain deficiency.
Looking ahead, the IMD predicts neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean may shift towards La Niña conditions by November-December 2024. When questioned about previous La Niña forecast inaccuracies, Mohapatra acknowledged the need for investigation: “The international community, including India’s scientists, need to investigate this. It is a matter of research.”