What Omicron peak in India could look like in terms of daily cases, bed requirement, experts predict
The peak of the possible Omicron-led third wave in India could arrive in January end and February beginning, when the country's daily caseload might reach four to eight lakh (7-day average), a new projection of the Sutra model has revealed. Bed requirement could peak around 1.5 lakh, but the wave appears to be manageable due to the low hospitalisation rate, IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal said. "Of course, things could change in the next couple of weeks. Also, there may be localised shortage of beds. So proper care and planning is warranted," Prof Agrawal tweeted.
Experts who are part of the Sutra Consortium are Anurag Agrawal, IGIB, Manindra Agrawal, IIT Kanpur, Pramod Garg, THSTI, Madhuri Kanitkar, MUHS, M Vidyasagar, IIT Hyderabad.
The projections made taking into account the Omicron situation of India till January 6 said the loss of immunity is a major factor contributing to the ongoing rise in the cases. According to its estimation, 70% to 100% of people have lost immunity. Natural immunity is also being bypassed varying between 50 to 100%, it said.
"Doing prediction for India at the moment is more difficult since the model has not been able to capture the present phase yet. Extrapolating from Mumbai, we estimate that peak could arrive in Jan-end/Feb-beginning. Its value could be between 4-8 lakh cases per day (7-day average)," Prof Agrawal said.
Mumbai at the peak of the Omicron surge could record 30,000 to 60,000 cases per day (7-day average), while Delhi's daily infection at the peak could range between 35,000 and 70,000. January 15-20 will be the peak time for Delhi, Mumbai and India, the projection model says. The hospital bed requirement in Delhi is estimated to be 12,000 at its peak, while in Mumbai it could be 10,000.
On Friday, India reported 1,17,100 fresh Coronavirus infections, the highest after 214 days as over one lakh cases were reported in June last year. Delhi health minister Satyendar Jain said Delhi is likely to report 17,000 Covid cases on Friday, while Mumbai's daily case is expected to be around 21,000 on Friday, Maharashtra Covid task force member Dr Shashank Joshi said.
Projection of IISC-ISI experts
Another projection by scientists from IISC and ISI, which was last updated on January 2, 2022, the peak will come two weeks later. The model has statewise predictions of the third wave. The study has taken three probable aspects into consideration: 100% susceptible, 60% susceptible and 30% susceptible.