Covid 3rd wave: India unlikely to cross 4 lakh cases per day, scientists project

By | Written by Poulomi Ghosh
Jan 19, 2022 06:12 AM IST

Covid 3rd wave in India: According to this analysis, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata have already seen the peak, while Bengaluru will see the peak on January 22.

The latest analysis of the Covid-19 situation by scientists reveals that the overall peak of the third wave in India will arrive on January 23 but the daily case is unlikely to cross 4 lakh. Delhi, Mumbai have already reached their peak earlier in the second week of January, the Sutra model of Covid tracker said.

People flout Covid-appropriate behaviour as they visit the weekly market in Jungpura, New Delhi. 
People flout Covid-appropriate behaviour as they visit the weekly market in Jungpura, New Delhi. 

IIT professor Manindra Agrawal, one of the researchers of the Sutra consortium that has been working with Covid numbers since the beginning of the pandemic, said the trajectories have been changing across the country. There might be two reasons for that: One, the spread of Omicron among those with less immunity has slowed down as the population group is now exhausted.


Giving a statewise picture of the peak of the ongoing third wave, the model revealed that Mumbai reached its peak on January 12 and the numbers are now decreasing rapidly. Delhi peaked on January 16 and Kolkata on January 13. Bengaluru will reach its peak on January 22. According to the finding, Maharashtra, Gujarat and UP are predicted to peak on Jan 19, Assam on January 26.

Also Read: What Omicron peak in India could look like in terms of daily cases, bed requirement, experts predict

"Hospitalisations continue to be very low. Uttar Pradesh, I understand, has less than 1% reported cases needing hospitalisation," Prof Agrawal noted.

India on Tuesday recorded 2.38 lakh cases continuing the decrease of the daily cases after reaching the highest of 2.6 lakh a few days ago.

Delhi authorities have been hinting at the plateau as the national capital saw its daily cases stabilising. On Tuesday, Delhi recorded 11,684 new infections and on Monday, the 24-hour tally was 12,527. On January 13, Delhi reported 28,867 Covid cases, the sharpest single-day spike.

Covid 3rd wave peak in these states and cities:

Assam: January 26

Bihar: January 17

Uttar Pradesh: January 19

Haryana: January 20

Gujarat: January 19

Maharashtra: January 19

Karnataka: January 23

Andhra Pradesh: January 30

Tamil Nadu: January 25

Bengaluru: January 22

Kolkata: January 13

Delhi: January 16

Mumbai: January 12

This is a mathematical projection by the Sutra consortium calculated based on Covid data. The Covid situation on the ground is evolving.

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