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Canada polls: For the first time, Trudeau’s party trails in surveys
PM Justin Trudeau called for snap elections to be held on September 20 to win majority in the 338-seat House of Commons, but that looks unlikely now
Two weeks into a national election campaign for the September 20 snap polls, Canada’s ruling Liberal Party is for the first time trailing its principal opposition Conservative Party, led by its PM candidate Erin O’Toole, in voter preference, according to a number of surveys.
Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau precipitated snap elections on August 15 in an attempt to convert his minority government into a majority, but as things stand, the Liberals may actually capture fewer seats in the new parliament than they did in 2019.
Poll trackers put the momentum with the Conservatives, showing a narrow advantage for them now, after trailing the Liberals for months. The outlet CBC News’ stated, “For the first time in nearly 18 months, the Conservatives have moved ahead in voting intentions. The Liberals are still favoured to win most seats, but have been trending down as the Conservatives rise.”
At 32.5% support, the Conservatives have the slightest of leads over the Liberals, who are at 32.2%. That status is confirmed by the tracker from the election analysis outlet 338 Canada, which puts the Conservatives at 32.8%, again just 0.3% ahead of the Liberals. 338 Canada’s founder Philippe J Fournier tweeted on Friday that “this election is now officially a toss-up”.
Other polls give the Conservatives a bigger margin. In tracking data released on Saturday, the agency Nanos Research, in a poll for the outlets CTV News and Globe and Mail stated that “ballot support for the Conservatives sits at 33.3%, while the Liberals are at 30.8% support”.
“What was a tie early this week, it looks like the Conservatives are now gaining the upper hand and there is definitely negative pressure on the Liberals right now,” Nik Nanos, founder of the agency, told CTV News.
Trudeau and his party have three weeks to regain ground, and fulfil his ambition of garnering the 170 seats necessary for a majority in the House of Commons. But, as of now, 338 Canada projects the ruling party may capture just 141, pipping the Conservatives by only five seats. This emerging reality was echoed by the CBC News tracker: “The Liberals are still favoured to win most seats but their chances of winning a majority government have fallen sharply since the beginning of the campaign and they are now poised to win fewer seats than in 2019.”
The Liberals captured 157 seats in the last Federal elections.
Several factors are playing into Trudeau’s dwindling popularity. One of them is the negative impression that his administration seems to have given in its much criticised handling of the evacuation efforts in Afghanistan.
Apart from that, many voters are unhappy over the snap election call in the midst of a fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country.
As Darrell Bricker, CEO of the polling firm Ipsos Public Affairs, tweeted, “A pundit trope that needs to be put out to pasture is that voters quickly get over the reason an election is called and engage with the campaign. Ipsos polling shows that the percentage who think we shouldn’t be having an election now has increased over the last two weeks.”
