After Lok Sabha election setback, Uttar Pradesh bypolls pose both challenge and opportunity for BJP
Though the Election Commission is yet to announce the poll schedule, both the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and the INDIA bloc, comprising the SP and the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, have already started preparations.
The upcoming assembly by-elections in 10 crucial assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh will be both a challenge and an opportunity for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that is trying hard to overcome the unexpected setback it suffered in the recent Lok Sabha elections in the state.
These polls are also being seen as a litmus test to the BJP’s standing in the state ahead of the crucial 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. Their results will indicate whether the party has successfully energised its cadre and resolved internal issues, as it aimed to do during its one-day state executive meeting on Sunday.
Though by-polls are generally not treated as a very important event, they invariably happened to the focus area in the BJP’s state executive addressed by party national president JP Nadda and chief minister Yogi Adityanath, among others. Speaker after speaker sought to recharge party workers, exhorting them to work hard to hoist the party flag in by-polls.
Though the Election Commission is yet to announce the poll schedule, both the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc, comprising the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, have already started preparations.
The NDA aims to reverse the Lok Sabha election outcome, while the SP and Congress alliance seeks to further strengthen its position in the state maintaining the momentum it gained in LS polls.
BJP state president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary said the party would contest the bypolls for all 10 assembly seats with full force and aims to win all of them.
“We have already activated all our organisational units at various levels and assigned duties to the in-charge ministers for each assembly constituency,” he said, adding, “A strategy to win all the 10 assembly seats in the upcoming by-elections is being actively chalked out and discussed.”
Nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh fell vacant after their MLAs, including Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, were elected to the Lok Sabha earlier last month.
Besides, SP MLA from Sisamau (Kanpur) Irfan Solanki was convicted in a criminal case and sentenced to seven years’ imprisonment. His assembly seat is also set to go to bypolls.
The assembly seats for which bypolls will be conducted are: Karhal (Mainpuri), Khair (Aligarh), Kundarki (Moradabad), Katehari (Ambedkar Nagar), Phulpur (Prayagraj), Ghaziabad (Ghaziabad), Majhawan (Mirzapur), Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), Milkipur (Ayodhya), and Sisamau (Kanpur).
Five of these seats—Karhal, Kundarki, Katehari, Milkipur, and Sisamau—were held by the SP, while the BJP held three—Khair, Phulpur, and Ghaziabad—and its ally, the NISHAD party, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won Majhawan and Meerapur seats respectively.
Though these are only bypolls, the BJP has a lot at stake in these elections and is thus leaving no stone unturned in its quest to secure a decisive victory.
The results of these by-elections are believed to have significant implications for the party’s strategy and morale as it gears up for the 2027 state assembly elections. For the BJP, success in these bypolls would not only restore confidence but also pave the way for a comeback in Uttar Pradesh’s political arena.
The BJP is yet to overcome the setback it suffered in the Lok Sabha polls, where its vote share declined by around 8%, winning only 33 seats on its own. Its pre-poll partners, the RLD and the Apna Dal (SP), won two and one seat respectively. The BJP and its allies had won 73 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 and 64 seats in 2019.
In addition to holding onto its current assembly seats that will go to bypolls, the BJP is keen on making inroads into territories where it has previously faced challenges. The party may need to devise a fresh strategy to counter the INDIA bloc’s momentum in the bypolls.
This may, however, not be an easy task, given the fact that the party is grappling with the need to address internal dissent and the aftermath of the Lok Sabha election results. The party has identified several reasons for the poor show in the LS polls and is trying to deal with the same.
The government and the organization do not seem to be on the same page when it comes to the reasons for the party’s underwhelming performance, and ironing out these differences may be a big challenge to the party in the future as well.
Additionally, managing its allies that have started flexing their muscles blaming the BJP’s inability to bring voters to the booths targetting some of the policies of the government will be challenge too.
For example, NISHAD party chief Sanjay Nishad has raised questions over officials bulldozing many people’s houses without following the due process. He said the DM did not listen to him when he requested him not bulldoze a poor woman’s house without a preliminary inquiry.
Earlier, Apna Dal (S) chief Anupriya Patel wrote a letter to chief minister Yogi Adityanath, alleging discrimination in filling posts meant for SCs, STs and OBCs. Her letter, it was believed, caused a lot of embarrassment to the government.
Also, the SP-Congress alliance will spare no effort to maintain the momentum it gained in the LS polls.
The coming days will see a lot of churning and deliberations in the BJP and the government as a follow-up to the political resolutions passed in the state executive.
Last week, INDIA bloc parties won 10 assembly seats, while the BJP clinched two and an Independent one in by-elections held for 13 seats in seven states. The bypolls were held on July 10 in four seats in West Bengal, three in Himachal Pradesh, two in Uttarakhand, and one each in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu.