Two major wars and possibilities under Trump’s presidency
This article is authored by Sriparna Pathak.
Even before United States (US) President elect has had a chance to begin his tenure, the world is on the brink of a nuclear war. On November 20, 2024, the US closed its Embassy in Kyiv, warning that it has received specific information of a potential significant air attack, amid soaring tensions with Russia. It also instructed American employees and citizens in Ukraine to be prepared for immediate shelter. While the Russia-Ukraine war has been raging on since 2022, the recent escalation comes after Ukraine used US-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles and fired it for the first time across the border, on the 1000th day of the war. Russian air defence forces shot down five Ukrainian ballistic missiles and 85 drones within just 24 hours. Russia warned of a response to Ukraine’s use of western missiles.
Outgoing President Joe Biden, authorised Ukraine to use the US supplied long-range missiles to strike deeper inside Russia, easing limitations on the weapons, as Russia deployed thousands of North Korean troops to reinforce its war. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that allowing Ukraine to target Russia changes the very nature of the conflict dramatically. It means that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) countries- the US and European countries are at war with Russia. In June, Putin had reaffirmed Moscow’s readiness to use nuclear weapons if it’s sees a threat to its sovereignty. In November, after Ukraine used ATACMS weapons, Putin issued a nuclear threat. He signed a decree that enables Moscow to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear States such as Ukraine if they are supported by nuclear powers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News that Ukraine will lose if Washington pulls funding. President elect Donald Trump who is to take office in roughly two months had raised uncertainty about whether his administration would continue the US’s vital military support for Ukraine and had also vowed to quickly end the war. However, two months is long enough duration for further escalations and miscalculations, increasing possibilities of a nuclear war. An urgent need of the hour is for the outgoing Biden administration to show meaningful signs of de-escalation and for President elect to communicate to Moscow that his administration wants a meaningful de-escalation. It is also imperative for Ukraine to stop further escalation, keeping in mind that Trump had vowed in his campaign trails to stop massive funding to Ukraine and that he is soon going to take office. It is also pertinent that Russia does not unleash a nuclear war which will be detrimental not just to the countries involved but for the whole of humanity.
In the context of the war in West Asia, in an April interview, Donald Trump stated, “Get it over with and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people”. In his first term, Trump recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy there. He recognised Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights and allowed expansion of housing for Jews in West Bank. As opposed to Biden’s support for a two-state solution, Trump had a plan that would grant Israel the rights to large parts of territories and to maintain full security control over demilitarised states. However, his second term is different from the first time. Israel suffered terrorism on October 7 last year and Israeli hostages are yet to be released by Hamas. Additionally, other states in the region have become involved. In April, he stated, “Most people thought it was going to be a two-State solution. I’m not sure a two-State solution any more is going to work.” His nominee for US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has outright denied the existence of a Palestinian State and added that there is no such thing as West Bank, it is Judea and Samaria.
The US envoy Amos Hochstein held meetings in Beirut with Lebanese officials, and his trip is being seen as a sign of progress in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah. However, this does not mean a deal is imminent. Qatar has already announced the suspension of its role as a mediator in indirect talks towards a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Gaza war, and Hamas has stated that it is ready for a ceasefire, while urging Trump to pressure Israel.
The possibilities of an early end of the two current major wars is likely low even under a Trump presidency. In the Russia-Ukraine theatre, hostilities are only increasing, while in the West Asian theatre, there is no indication of the release of Israeli hostages. It becomes pertinent that in the two months that remain before Trump takes over presidency, the outgoing administration does not complicate the wars further and that the Trump administration discusses the issues at hand with the outgoing administration.
This article is authored by Sriparna Pathak, associate professor, Chinese Studies and International Relations, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.