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Fewer hot days if Paris goals met: New analysis
A report warns that adhering to the Paris Agreement could reduce extreme heat days globally, but 2.6°C warming still poses serious health risks.
New Delhi: The terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement could help the world avoid 57 hot days every year if countries follow through on their emission-cutting commitments and limit warming this century to 2.6°C, a new analysis has said.
The report titled “Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat” by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution shows the historic accord can help the world move toward a safer climate.
However, researchers warn that 2.6°C of warming will still subject future generations to dangerous heat, cause severe health impacts, and widen inequality. In a 2.6°C world, countries would experience an average of 57 additional hot days per year than they do in today’s climate but this is half the increase in a 4 degrees C warming scenario. In a 4°C world, countries around the world would experience an average of 114 additional hot days per year. “Hot days” refer to days with temperatures warmer than 90% of temperatures observed at a site over the 1991-2020 period. India is expected to record 30 fewer hot days if warming is kept to 2.6 degree C under current emission plans, compared to if the world is allowed to warm by 4 degrees C with no climate action. Kenya could see 82 fewer days, Mexico 77, Brazil 69, Egypt 36, Australia 34, the US 30, the UK 29, China 29, and Spain 27.
For India and Pakistan, researchers have given the example of the 2022 spring heat stress episode. Under current national emission reduction plans (2.6°C warming over pre-indudstrial level) these events would be roughly 1.4 degrees C hotter and seven times more likely.
Without emissions reductions (a 4°C pathway), a 2022-like spring could be expected every two years, about 14 times more likely and 3.3°C hotter than today.
“Despite this growing risk, most of India’s 37 heat action plans take an overly simplified view of heat waves, often neglecting the needs of vulnerable groups and placing limited emphasis on systemic change, equity, and social protection,” the authors said.
Compared with the decade before the Paris Agreement, nearly every country has seen an increase in the number of hot days. On average, during the last decade (2015-2024), countries around the world have experienced 11 more hot days per year than in the decade before the Paris Agreement (2005-2014).
“We are on track to exceed the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement this century—but this does not mean we need a new goal. Warming has to be kept as far below 2°C as possible. But cutting emissions alone won’t be enough. We also need to triple our adaptation efforts to protect lives and livelihoods,” said Joyce Kimutai, Researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London in a statement.
“The Paris Agreement is a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. Political leaders need to take the reason for the Paris Agreement much more seriously. It is about protecting our human rights. Every fraction of a degree of warming — whether it is 1.4, 1.5, or 1.7°C — will mean the difference between safety and suffering for millions of people,” said Friederike Otto, Professor in Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London in a statement.
To be sure, health risks linked to climate change are reaching unprecedented levels, the report said.
Heat-related deaths among people over 65 have increased by 167% since the 1990s, while exposure to extreme weather continues to rise. An estimated 16,600 people lost their lives across European cities during the summer of 2025 alone as a result of increased temperatures . In Africa, heat waves continue to be a silent killer . Climate-sensitive diseases are spreading, and hundreds of millions of people now face growing food insecurity, authors have said.
