EU suspension of CAI is a setback to Merkel’s pro-China policies
The suspension of CAI comes at a time when the EU has decided to reopen trade and investment negotiations with India after a long hiatus of eight years, primarily because a high ambition bar was maintained for New Delhi.
In European Union Parliament, there is a saying that their human rights policies are so tight that they can fit into bonnet of a BMW car. The EU’s suspension of ratification of Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with China has not only sounded a death knell of the agreement but is a strong rebuff to German Chancellor Angela Merkel pro-China polices of the past 15 years.

“The investment agreement is as good as dead despite the EU officially stating that it is suspended for now. Many EU diplomats including some from Germany were sceptical from the beginning but the last straw was the Chinese sanctioning of European Parliament members, including the entire human rights committee,” said a senior diplomat in EU. The sanctions were imposed in retaliation to the EU sanctioning four Chinese officials and the Xinjiang Public Security Bureau for their alleged involvement in operating so-called education camps in Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province. It is the European Parliament that must approve the CAI and with its members sanctioned, such a decision becomes untenable.
While Germany, and to some extent France, were behind the CAI’s conclusion in December last year, the fact that it set a low ambition bar on Chinese aggression against Taiwan, Hong Kong and human rights abuses in Xinjiang, had led to strong opposition from the Greens and Liberal members of European Parliament. The EU media and other pressure groups had also highlighted similar concerns. Many hinted that the CAI was moving till now mainly as it was a personal project of the German Chancellor and would lose steam eventually once see demits office in September this year. Chancellor Angela Merkel, with an eye on German auto business, not only pushed the agreement during its EU presidency in 2020 but is also now seen as someone who is staunchly opposing TRIPS waiver on vaccines as she wants US-European companies to export these vaccines on commercial basis rather than give up on IPR even in the time of biggest health crisis in 100 years.
The suspension of CAI comes at a time when the EU has decided to reopen trade and investment negotiations with India after a long hiatus of eight years, primarily because a high ambition bar was maintained for New Delhi. This was done despite India being a democracy with strong laws on human rights, labour and strong commitment to rules based international system.
ABOUT THE AUTHORShishir GuptaShishir Gupta is Executive Editor at Hindustan Times and one of India's top journalists covering national security, strategic affairs, foreign policy and geopolitics. Over the past three decades, he has extensively reported on India's military, diplomatic and security landscape, covering every major conflict and national security challenge, from the 1999 Kargil War and the 2020 East Ladakh standoff to Operation Sindoor in 2025. He has also covered major terror attacks, including the IC-814 hijacking, the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and the 2025 Pahalgam terror strike, along with numerous Pakistan-backed terrorist incidents in the Kashmir Valley and across India. He has reported on national and state elections for more than three decades. A recognised authority on strategic affairs, Gupta has covered India's nuclear programme since the Pokhran-II (Shakti series) tests in May 1998 and has written extensively on global nuclear issues, Indian diplomacy and the country's expanding global outreach. He has also reported widely on international conflicts and terrorism, with a special focus on the Indian subcontinent. Gupta has interviewed Prime Minister Narendra Modi more than four times, including Modi's first interview with the print media after becoming Prime Minister in May 2014. His other interviews include three with the Dalai Lama, as well as conversations with Benjamin Netanyahu, Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath, S. Jaishankar, Nirmala Sitharaman and Piyush Goyal. He is the author of Indian Mujahideen: The Enemy Within (Hachette, 2011) and Himalayan Face-off: Chinese Assertion and Indian Riposte (Hachette, 2014). He was awarded the Chevening-Wolfson Joint Scholarship at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, UK, in 1998 and participated in the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP) of the US State Department in 2006. He received the Ben Gurion Prize from Israel in 2011 and the K. Subrahmanyam Prize for Strategic Studies in 2015 from the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA). Since 2024, he has hosted Point Blank, Hindustan Times' weekly YouTube show on global geopolitics.Read More

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