How Congress helps the NDA in the Telugu states

The BJP’s prospects in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are bleak. But the Congress’s arrogance will only benefit the NDA

United Andhra Pradesh catapulted the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to power, both in 2004 and 2009, by giving the grand old party more than 30 seats on each occasion. In fact, the South of the Vindhyas, especially Andhra Pradesh, always stood firmly loyal to the Congress even in its worst times. Indira Gandhi herself was elected from Medak (now in Telangana). At a time when the Congress was decimated in north India in 1977 owing to the fallout of the imposition of the Emergency, Andhra Pradesh sent 41 Congress Members of Parliament to Delhi. But today, after the bifurcation of the state, the two Telugu states seem to be turning into a nemesis for the party at a time when it is desperately trying to revive itself. And the party has only itself to blame for this. The self-centred manner in which it dealt with the question of the demand for the separate state of Telangana made the Congress hugely unpopular. This isn’t so just in the residuary Andhra Pradesh, which is aggrieved with what it believes to be an arbitrary bifurcation, but also in Telangana, where the party claims to have met the long standing aspiration of the people. This self-destructive political manoeuvring of the Congress will now play into the hands of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The TRS and YSR Congress are expected to win a sizable number of seats and are more likely to join the NDA bandwagon in the post-poll scenario (ANI Photo)

Desperate to compensate for the losses in north and west India, the saffron brigade hopes to capitalise on the political failure of the Congress in dealing with the people who stood behind it in its hour of crisis. The BJP on its own has little or no stake in both the Telugu states. One, the denial of special category status as promised during the bifurcation debate in Parliament made the BJP fall out of favour in Andhra Pradesh. Two, its failure to locate itself properly vis-a-vis the TRS made it largely irrelevant in Telangana.

Despite this, the Congress is not gaining much. The TRS and YSR Congress are expected to win a sizable number of seats, and the BJP is set to benefit from it. The two parties, which now claim to be non-BJP and non-Congress in the pre-poll setting, are more likely to join the NDA in the post-poll scenario. The TRS finds the Congress as its principal political rival in Telangana. Thus, it cannot prefer a party at the Centre that challenges it in the state. The YSR Congress chief, YS Jaganmohan Reddy, fell out with the Congress leadership and still has a bitter personal rivalry with Sonia Gandhi. Besides, now that his arch rival, N Chandrababu Naidu, has rallied other regional parties under the Congress leadership, YS Jagan is compelled to stay away from the grand old party. Thus, notwithstanding hostile rhetoric, both the TRS and the YSR Congress are prospective allies of the BJP.

But it remains clear that the BJP’s prospects in both the Telugu states are bleak. The estrangement with the TDP and the disenchantment over special status will decimate the party in Andhra Pradesh. And the failure to take a clear stand on TRS is costing it dearly in Telangana. However, it is the arrogance with which the Congress handled the Telugu people, which will prove to be a major advantage for the NDA in the form of allies in the TRS and YSR Congress.

K Nageshwar is author and professor, department of communication and journalism, Osmania University

The views expressed are personal