The global smartphone market is in an uncontrolled slump, as global smartphone shipments have declined significantly, driven by dips in India, Greater China, West Asia and North America. Research firm Smart Analytics Global (SAG), in the latest edition of its Smartphone 360 report which HT has access to, notes that worldwide smartphone shipments declined 19.9% year on year, to 257.6 million units in Q3 2026. In India specifically, the decline was 23% for the quarter, closing at 35.9 million units, as memory shortages and rising component costs continue to have an impact.
India isn’t the only market with significant shipment declines. Japan is the only regional market to avoid an YoY shipment decline for the quarter, with Greater China (11.4% decline), Middle East and North Africa (MENA; down 35.9%), Southeast Asia (30.7% lower) and North America as well as Western Europe (9% dip) all registering weakening demand as phones continue to become more expensive.
SAG notes that this becomes the third successive quarter for the year with shipments declining, with Q3 marking the biggest dip yet. Abhilash Kumar, Lead Research Advisor (Director), at SAG tells HT that “some vendors tried to resist and continued shipping throughout Q2 making the numbers appear better. This continued to an extent in Q3 2026 plus there was preparation for the festive season. Despite all this, the market declined more than 20% in volume terms marking an indication of a real supply issue within the industry.”
Interestingly, only Samsung and Nothing (already starting from a very low base, with 2% market share) recorded annual shipment growth in India, at 8% and 30% respectively, in a stark contrast to the overall market trajectory. “Nothing could have grown more on a small base, but a lack of products (only 2 to 3 models) also limits its growth,” Kumar says.
{{/usCountry}}Interestingly, only Samsung and Nothing (already starting from a very low base, with 2% market share) recorded annual shipment growth in India, at 8% and 30% respectively, in a stark contrast to the overall market trajectory. “Nothing could have grown more on a small base, but a lack of products (only 2 to 3 models) also limits its growth,” Kumar says.
{{/usCountry}}Samsung’s Q3 2026 market share has risen to 18%, up from 13% in the same quarter last year. Their Galaxy phone portfolio, across price points, took over the space ceded by Chinese phone makers—this includes the Galaxy A series phones in the entry-to-mid segment. The company’s newest foldable phones, the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra, have also seen consistent demand.
“Apart from this, exclusive offers on Samsung S-series smartphones, including the S25 Ultra and S26 Ultra, helped Samsung in the premium segment. The A series helped in the entry-to-mid segment, while foldable phones helped in the ultra-premium segment. This way, Samsung was able to grow in Q3 2026 while most smartphone vendors declined. However, given Samsung’s strategic shift from volume-first to value-first, we expect its market leadership in India to be challenged in the coming quarters,” says Linda Sui, Founder and Principal at SAG
Vivo, also with 18% of the market share, has seen shipments decline by a significant 39% YoY. Kumar notes that Vivo was also facing supply constraints for the quarter and there were some production issues. The market share has dipped from 22% a year earlier. Oppo, which now has a 14% market share, saw shipments decline 23% YoY, while Xiaomi, with a 13% market share, also saw a 30% YoY decline in shipments.
Apple, which stays in the Top 5 with an 11% market share, managed to limit the shipment decline to 5%. SAG notes this is lower than the rest of the market and was driven by consistent traction for the iPhone 16 series and iPhone 17 series during the Independence Day sale, as well as the launch of the iPhone 18 Pro series in September.
“Apple is still in a growth phase in India, and this momentum helped it decline less compared to other players. With no iPhone 18 regular model launching this year, consumers also went ahead with the iPhone 17 and the iPhone 16 in September, which helped Apple reduce its overall decline,” Kumar says.
Apple was the last big phone maker to hike prices in India, ahead of the launch of the iPhone 18 Pro phones in September.
The outlook, is bleak
SAG foresees that the Indian smartphone market will face another double-digit shipment decline that’s even greater in impact, in Q4 26. It is estimated that the festive season quarter could see a further 26% shipment drop for smartphones in the country, as higher prices continue to hurt consumer demand.
Kumar raises the point about smartphone vendors needing additional time to absorb the earlier pull-forward shipments due to continued influx of inventory in previous quarters by certain brands, which would mean elevated channel inventory levels.
“For full-year 2026, SAG forecasts India smartphone shipments to fall 15% YoY, following
3% growth in 2025. The downturn will continue through 2027, when SAG forecasts full-year shipments to decline 11% YoY,” he says.
2027 is unlikely to bring much cheer, with estimates suggesting that following the 26% shipment decline expected in Q4 26, the first and second quarters of 2027 will see shipments declining 19% and 14% respectively, with only the third quarter bringing some respite with an 8% reduction in shipments, making a return to single digits.