Study sounds alarm bells for agri productivity in central Maharashtra

A new study warns that a "very likely" rise in human-induced drought will adversely affect agricultural productivity in the semi-arid region of Maharashtra state, India. The study cites declining water tables, rising temperatures, and changing crop patterns as factors affecting productivity. The region has been historically reliant on rainfed agriculture rather than irrigated crops. The study suggests that the use of water-intensive crops such as sugarcane, onion, wheat, and maize has boosted economic conditions in the area, but will have negative implications in the next few decades.

Mumbai: A new study by the department of geography at Vidya Pratishthan’s Arts, Science and Commerce College in Baramati has suggested that a combination of factors such as declining water table, rising temperatures and changing crop pattern are going to adversely impact agricultural productivity in the semi-arid region of the state.

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The study was based on analysis of data from seven of the state’s driest districts—Pune, Sangli, Osmanabad, Beed, Satara, Solapur and Ahmednagar—where the mean annual rainfall is under 700 mm.

Published in the latest issue of Springer Nature’s journal ‘Regional Environmental Change’, the study warns of a “very likely” rise in human-induced drought along the Sina, Karha, Yerala, Man and Agrani river basins in southern Madhya Maharashtra, a phenomenon that has been trending upward since 2000. The region lies to ‘rain-shadow’, in the east, of Western Ghats and has been historically reliant on rainfed agriculture instead of irrigated crops.

Rahul Todmal, assistant professor of geography at the college and the author of the study, said, “This scenario has changed over two decades with government and non-government support. Initiatives like irrigation ponds and borewells have been adopted for water-intensive crops like sugarcane, onion, wheat and maize. This has boosted economic conditions for some, but the larger implications will play out in the next few decades. Our study looked at changing trends in cropping patterns, temperature and rainfall and found that the region is under significant water and heat stress. This is counterproductive for the crops that are being preferred by farmers nowadays.”

In the study region, such days are increasing by two to five every decade, particularly for crops like sugarcane, onion, wheat and maize, which require cooler temperatures. The groundwater table in the area is simultaneously falling by around 7 cm per year, much faster than it can replenish itself, which will also affect the yield.

These projections are based on data obtained from the India Meteorological Department, the Hydrological Data Users Group, the State Agriculture Department, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Groundwater Survey and Development Agency, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA.

“We will begin to see adverse impacts on the yield of cash crops in the very near future. Models also suggest a significant rise in temperature of around 1.05 degrees Celsius over the study area by 2050, which will lead to issues of water scarcity and impact even rainfed crops. Productivity of sugarcane is expected to decline by around 20% in this time frame, while rainfed sorghum could decline by as much as 18%. We are exacerbating a natural crisis by not promoting farming of hardier crops like jowar, bajra and others,” Todmal added.

The geography professor emphasised that “it is obvious to have a commercial perspective towards agriculture” but cautioned that these changes in farmer’s preferences can increase agricultural water demand to an unsustainable level. “It is necessary to obligate farmers to adopt modern water-saving techniques such as drip irrigation and sprinklers. Zones can be demarcated based on availability of water and the agriculture department can design policies to limit or promote certain crops,” Todmal said, in the final analysis.