PUNE In view of IIT Kanpur’s study that a fourth wave of Covid-19 may hit the country between July and August this year, state surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awate has said that unless a new variant is reported, the possibility of a fourth wave is rare.
IIT Kanpur’s study is based on mathematical predictions and calculations depending on multiple variables including vaccination, herd immunity, variants and others. However, Dr Awate said that even if a new variant is reported, it will not necessarily be as deadly as the second wave as the severity will depend on the variant and the mutation itself. The IIT Kanpur study shows that the fourth Covid-19 wave will set in around June in the country. The study is based on mathematical modelling, statistics and other variables like vaccination and mutations.
The IIT Kanpur study states, “The fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020. Therefore, the fourth wave might start from June 22, peak around August 23, and end by October 24, 2022.” According to Dr Awate however, “The fourth wave could set in if a new variant is reported. As of now, no new variant has been reported anywhere in the world. Also the severity of the wave would depend on the mutations. Also the time period would depend on when the first case is reported and where it is reported. Mutations are natural in any virus and they will keep happening. However, only specific mutations are of concern.”
As per the IIT study, the severity of the wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, vaccination status, and administration of booster doses. Currently, more than 95% of the eligible population in the country has got its first dose of the vaccine.
{{/usCountry}}As per the IIT study, the severity of the wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, vaccination status, and administration of booster doses. Currently, more than 95% of the eligible population in the country has got its first dose of the vaccine.
{{/usCountry}}Also, multiple studies carried out based on mathematical calculations and statistics have proven wrong earlier as well, according to Dr Awate. “Unless and until there is any new variant of Covid-19 reported, there is no possibility of a new wave. Factors like vaccination status, climatic factors, natural immunity etc. also matter a lot during such pandemics,” he said.
Dr Aurnab Ghose, principal investigator at the Indian Institute of Education and Research (IISER) said, “The study is based on mathematical modelling and statistics. I have not gone into it in detail however currently, I don’t foresee any major wave coming in. The emergence of a new variant or even if Omicron mutates into a different virus, it would have to be spread through the community and also escape the current herd immunity or the immunity through vaccine.”