As India enters the final week of its extended lockdown, there is a paradox confronting policymakers, which was visible in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with chief ministers on Monday. The lockdown was imposed when the country had just over 500 cases. Today, India has close to 70,000 cases. The lockdown has not flattened the curve, though it has slowed the spread of the infection. Is this, then, the right time to end the lockdown? The answer is yes — but with caveats.
Each phase of India’s lockdown has looked different, with varying degree of relaxations introduced in red, orange and green zones since May 4. But given the intricate ways in which supply chains are tied together, urban spaces are organised, and the difficulties in implementation, it is clear that while sound in principle, this has been too complex and nuanced a policy framework to be implemented smoothly. It has also not led to the adequate opening of the economy. The government seems to recognise this, and has increasingly begun preparing citizens to learn to live with the virus. Opening up of rail travel, even if in a limited manner, is another hint at the resumption of activities. At the same time, as the PM indicated, the Centre wants to ensure a degree of control over activities to prevent an unmanageable spread of the disease. While opinion among the states is divided on the lockdown, there is a consensus on the need for more economic activities.
Given the economic distress, the fiscal pressure on the states, and the fact that the lockdown is yielding diminishing returns on the health front, the government now needs to open up India. This should be accompanied with five measures. One, give states the authority to declare red, orange and green zones and let them decide on the restrictions they may want, particularly in containment zones — even as the Centre provides them whatever support they need. Two, allow inter-state travel — but primarily by road, while keeping rail and air travel limited, meeting social distancing norms. Three, allow opening up of offices — but with an advisory, not a directive, that work from home should be preferred where possible. Four, keep educational institutions and recreational public places shut for another month. And five, each time a case is reported, institute a firm drill of testing, contact tracing, and isolation. It will be difficult, but India can’t remain closed anymore.
{{/usCountry}}Given the economic distress, the fiscal pressure on the states, and the fact that the lockdown is yielding diminishing returns on the health front, the government now needs to open up India. This should be accompanied with five measures. One, give states the authority to declare red, orange and green zones and let them decide on the restrictions they may want, particularly in containment zones — even as the Centre provides them whatever support they need. Two, allow inter-state travel — but primarily by road, while keeping rail and air travel limited, meeting social distancing norms. Three, allow opening up of offices — but with an advisory, not a directive, that work from home should be preferred where possible. Four, keep educational institutions and recreational public places shut for another month. And five, each time a case is reported, institute a firm drill of testing, contact tracing, and isolation. It will be difficult, but India can’t remain closed anymore.
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