Number Theory: Costs of the 3-year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict

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The Russia-Ukraine war has now been going on for more than a thousand days. Russia reportedly has lost upwards of 78,000 military personnel, while Ukraine’s losses are estimated to be more than 65,000 personnel and an estimated 18% of its territory. According to the United Nations, 12,162 civilian deaths have been verified so far, but the actual figure is likely to be much higher. What has been the economic and human impact of this war on these two countries and their neighbours? The charts below answers this in detail.

Ukrainian troops' weaponry and hardware on display. (Reuters Photo) (REUTERS)

Costs of the 3-year-long Russia-Ukraine conflict

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  Russian economy has proved to be more resilient than Ukraine’s...

  When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it was slapped by severe economic sanctions by Western countries. This led a lot of observers to believe that Russian economy will collapse eventually. That has not been the case so far. While Russia did suffer an economic contraction in 2022 and early months of 2023, it is expected to grow at 3.6% in 2024. In a nutshell, Russia’s GDP will be 6% more than its 2021 (pre-war year) GDP in 2024. Ukraine, on the other hand, will end up with a 2024 GDP which is nearly 23% lower than its 2021 GDP.
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  ...Which is mostly because of Russia’s ability to continue its fossil fuel exports

  Russia’s recovery is partly due to the failure of fossil fuel import bans to significantly cut its export revenues. Despite sanctions, many European countries still rely on Russian oil, though their direct purchases have declined since the war. However, Russian oil continues to reach the EU via third countries such as India, which buy it at discounted prices. For instance, estimates from global trade intelligence firm Kplr shows that India, which was the second largest buyer of Russian oil in October 2024, has now become the biggest supplier of refined fuel to European countries. Exports to the EU from the Jamnagar, Vadinar, and New Mangalore refineries — which are increasingly reliant on Russian crude — rose by 58% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, according to estimates by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
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  The war has worsened a demographic crisis in both countries

  In 2024, the Russians asked North Koreans soldiers to man their war effort against Ukraine. Ukraine, meanwhile, is being advised by the US to lower its conscription age from 25 to 18 to boost its war effort. Behind these decisions is a larger story of the war’s adverse impact on an already precarious demographic situation in both countries. A study by the Austrian Academy of Sciences, IIASA, and the University of Vienna shows that Ukraine’s population could shrink by 31% in the worst case scenario of “long war and low return” by 2052. However, even in an optimistic scenario where Ukraine quickly recovers, researchers forecast a population decline of 21%. Similarly, the war has led to a sharp drop in number of Russians living outside coming back to the country, something the Putin administration had been trying to do before the war (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/A-Russia-without-Russians-Putins-disastrous-demographics.pdf) Both Russia and Ukraine have been facing declining population much before the war started. The war’s shock has only made it worse.
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  Europe has increased its defence budget significantly since the war started...

  Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, European countries have hastened to boost defence spending after decades of underinvestment. The total defence expenditure of EU countries, which stood at Euro 214 billion in 2021, is expected to reach Euro 350 billion in 2024, a 63% increase in four years. To put things in perspective, in the 15 years between 2006 and 2021, the EU’s defence budget had only seen an increase of 39% from Euro 154 billion to Euro 214 billion.
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  ...Even as its growth prospects have taken a huge hit

  In October 2021, before the invasion, IMF released its biannual World Economic Outlook report which forecast that the EU’s real GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 will be 4.44% and 2.29% respectively. But the monetary body’s October 2024 edition of the report pegged these numbers at 3.65% and 0.56%, considerably lower than its previous estimate. Its latest figure for real GDP growth in the EU this year is 1.12%, lower than the estimate it made in 2021 of 1.88%. “High uncertainty is muting the rebound and Europe’s medium-term outlook. Risks from an intensification of the war in Ukraine and an escalation of armed conflicts in the Middle East have raised concerns about commodity price volatility,” said IMF’s October 2024 report on the region titled “A Recovery Short of Europe’s Full Potential”.