Climate change is set to trigger a major escalation in extreme heat and rainfall events across India and the situation is likely to get grimmer and harsher by 2030 with majority of the urban centres going to be impacted the most, a study report by IPE Global and Esri India said on Tuesday.
Cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna and Bhubaneswar are projected to record a two-fold increase in heat wave days by 2030, as compared to 1980, it said, adding that extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant and erratic rainfall events.
By 2030, climate change is expected to drive a 43% rise in intensity of extreme rainfall events across India, making the country hotter and wetter, the report said. The study is based on a climate risk observatory tool — developed by IPE Global and Esri India — which incorporates downscaled ensemble and dynamic modelling for future projections.
Most districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of incessant and erratic rainfall by 2030. The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen significantly in recent decades, it said.
“India has witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days across the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in the last three decade (between 1993 and 2024). Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days. We found that the monsoon season in India is witnessing an extended summer-like condition except on non-rainy days,” the report said.
{{/usCountry}}“India has witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days across the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in the last three decade (between 1993 and 2024). Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days. We found that the monsoon season in India is witnessing an extended summer-like condition except on non-rainy days,” the report said.
{{/usCountry}}More than 75% of districts in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur will be witnessing the double whammy of heat stress induced erratic and incessant rainfall by 2030, the report said. “These districts will witness at least one instance of heat wave during March, April and May months by 2030,” it added.
Last summer, India experienced a catastrophic period marked by a prolonged heat wave and flooding, resulting in the death of over 100 people and adversely impacting the health of thousands. “Our analysis further suggests that coastal regions will be witnessing a heat-stress-like condition during the JJAS (June-July-August-September) seasons by 2030. The percentage of districts that will be witnessing extended summer discomfort will range around 69% across the coastal districts. This will further increase to 79% by 2040,” the report projected.
Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and lead author of the study, stressed the need for urgent action.
“The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030 with a majority of the urban centres going to be impacted the most,” he said.
Mohanty added that the meteorological phenomena such El Niño and La Niña are going to gain “stronger momentum”, resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat.
“Our analysis suggests that around 72% of the tier-I & tier-II cities are going to witness an increased occurrences of heat stress and extreme rainfall events, accompanied with storm surges, lightning and hail storms,” he said.
The lead author recommended that “embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establishing climate-risk observatories” should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change.
The study also recommends that risk assessment principles should form the cornerstone of the country’s strategy to build resilience against heat waves and extreme rainfall. As an initial step, it proposes establishing a climate risk observatory (CRO) that can help identify, assess, and project chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level. The study also recommended devising risk financing instruments to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events.