US secretary of State, Marco Rubio’s visit to India by passing Delhi has generated a distinct buzz within diplomatic circle in the subcontinent. His visit, this time the second one in last six months, seems quite focused based on intensive close door planning before resuming Iran strikes after the mid-term election in early November. The trip being one-of-a-kind is defined by its route to Jamnagar, the site of the Reliance refinery complex. The signal of urgency is conspicuous as Washington fast-tracks its approach to deal with India less as a capital to be courted and more as a set of economic assets. Needless to say, Delhi’s prompt appreciation of the change of format reflects how deeply it wanted the visit to succeed.
The timing of the visit is significant. The US is trapped in the Iran conundrum., the conflict that moved into an uneasy lull leaving the home front in shambles where the adverse pressure renders politics murkier. The midterm elections on November 3 make it a fraught scenario for the Republicans facing a tough challenge before the campaign begins for the 2028 presidential race. The Iran episode produced no clear victory while fuel price hike remains a hot-button issue with voters. Before polling day, cheap and steady fuel is worth more to the administration than another confrontation.
This is why Jamnagar matters. Its twin refineries process about 1.4 million barrels a day, the largest single-site operation in the world, and were built to handle the heavy, high-sulphur crude that most American refineries cannot. Since US forces seized Nicolás Maduro in January, Washington has controlled Venezuela’s oil industry and has been marketing its output abroad. Reliance is now the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude, and Rubio said openly in Mumbai that he would ask the company to refine more of it. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and Red Sea shipping obstructed, Jamnagar could emerge as a saviour to reduce American dependence on the Gulf.
The Russian oil question shows the bargain more clearly. Just before Rubio left, President Trump took no time to pause the punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian oil authorised under the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, a measure that would have hit India hard. Rubio conceded that India can’t and need not give up Russian oil overnight, and Washington has itself agreed to buy Russian diesel. New Delhi welcomed the pause as relief. Read the dates. A 60-day window from mid-October closes in mid-December, after the midterms. India keeps buying Russian crude at Washington’s discretion, and the price of that discretion is to take more American and Venezuelan oil and to close the trade deal Rubio describes as all but signed.
{{/usCountry}}The Russian oil question shows the bargain more clearly. Just before Rubio left, President Trump took no time to pause the punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian oil authorised under the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, a measure that would have hit India hard. Rubio conceded that India can’t and need not give up Russian oil overnight, and Washington has itself agreed to buy Russian diesel. New Delhi welcomed the pause as relief. Read the dates. A 60-day window from mid-October closes in mid-December, after the midterms. India keeps buying Russian crude at Washington’s discretion, and the price of that discretion is to take more American and Venezuelan oil and to close the trade deal Rubio describes as all but signed.
{{/usCountry}}The larger change is what can precisely be designated as diplomatic decentering. Hitherto the familiar model ran from capital to capital, through foreign ministries, joint statements and summits. Rubio’s itinerary followed refineries and boardrooms. Multilateral diplomacy continues, but private capital now sits inside it as a participant. The effect was pacifying for both sides.
For India the gains are real even though several risks are discernible. The first is strategic. The second is political. Venezuelan oil flows from an American takeover of another country’s resources, and buying it is not a neutral commercial act for a country that has long defended sovereignty in the Global South. Closer energy alignment with Washington while the Iran conflict is unresolved also narrows India’s room with Tehran, including one on Chabahar.
The third risk is the one least discussed. Jamnagar sits on the Gulf of Kutch beside India’s first Marine National Park. Heavier, sulphur-rich crude means more sulphur to strip out, more emissions, and more tanker traffic in fragile coastal waters. A single site that carries so much of India’s refining, and now part of American energy planning, can also turn into a single point of failure: a fire, a cyclone or a prolonged labour dispute there might ripple through two economies at once.
Rubio’s visit can prove a turning point for India, but only if New Delhi sets the terms. It should take the investment and the energy, insist that serious diplomacy keeps its address in the capital, press for the sanctions pause to become durable rather than a temporary relief, and write environmental conditions into any expansion at Jamnagar.
(The views expressed are personal)
This article is authored by Gouri Sankar Nag, professor & head, Department of Political Science, S-K-B University and Arpan Bhattacharya, assistant professor, Department of Political Science, Ramananda College, Bishnupur, West Bengal.