On Friday evening, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Sharad Pawar said Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray would be the next chief minister of Maharashtra, heading a Sena-NCP-Congress alliance government.
On Saturday morning, even as much of the country was waking up to this headline, Sharad Pawar’s nephew and the NCP’s legislative party leader in the state, Ajit Pawar, took the oath of office to serve as chief minister Devendra Fadnavis’s deputy in a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and splinter-NCP group government in the state, in a move that faces legislative and legal challenges.
In the intervening 12 hours, the deal between Pawar Jr and Fadnavis, supported by the BJP’s Maharashtra in-charge general secretary, Bhupender Yadav, and blessed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah, was finalised. Modi tweeted his congratulations at 8.16am: “Congratulations to @Dev_Fadnavis Ji and @AjitPawarSpeaks Ji on taking oath as the CM and deputy CM of Maharashtra respectively. I am confident they will work diligently for the bright future of Maharashtra.”
In the intervening 12 hours, President’s Rule was repealed in the state and a gazette notification to the effect released.
And in the intervening 12 hours, the governor of Maharashtra, Bhagat Singh Koshyari, put off a planned trip to Delhi, and alerted Raj Bhavan officials to prepare for a quick swearing in.
The Fadnavis-Pawar Jr combine has to prove its majority in a floor test, and even late on Sunday it was not clear that it had the numbers. The BJP has 105 members in the 288-member assembly. The NCP has 54, but only five are believed to be with Pawar Jr. The Shiv Sena has 56 and the Congress, 44. And other parties and independents have 29.
{{/usCountry}}The Fadnavis-Pawar Jr combine has to prove its majority in a floor test, and even late on Sunday it was not clear that it had the numbers. The BJP has 105 members in the 288-member assembly. The NCP has 54, but only five are believed to be with Pawar Jr. The Shiv Sena has 56 and the Congress, 44. And other parties and independents have 29.
{{/usCountry}}People familiar with the matter said the BJP has the support of all members from the other parties, excluding those from the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Communist Party Of India (Marxist) and the Samajwadi Party. It isn’t clear where the other numbers will come from, unless some members of the Sena or Congress resign, bringing down the total strength of the House.
It is also unclear when the floor test is going to be held. While the BJP and the NCP said the date for the trust vote was November 30, there was no confirmation from Raj Bhavan.
The Supreme Court will hear on Sunday at 11.30 am a petition filed by the Sena, NCP and Congress challenging the governor’s decision to invite the BJP to form the government in the early hours of Saturday.
The three-judge SC bench that will hear the petition will comprise justices NV Ramana, Ashok Bhushan and Sanjiv Khanna.
The joint petition filed in the apex court late on Saturday evening asked the court to issue a direction to the governor to invite their alliance, known as the Maha Vikas Aghadi, to form the government. The alliance claims a total of 154 MLAs, a majority in the 288-seat assembly.
Sharad Pawar and his daughter and MP, Supriya Sule, made it clear that Ajit Pawar had struck the deal without keeping them in the loop, and said there was a split in both the party and the family.
In a late evening meeting, the NCP removed Ajit Pawar as the leader of the legislature party, and appointed Jayant Patil instead.
The Sena, whose chief Thackeray can justifiably feel miffed at being pipped at the post, and the NCP under Sharad Pawar called a press conference where they emphasised that the Fadnavis-Pawar Jr combine does not have the numbers. They also criticised the alliance and termed the events foul play.
“This is nothing but disrespect towards the Constitution and mandate given by Maharashtra...This is nothing but a political surgical strike that the BJP has done. We will stand together and we will form the government in Maharashtra,” Thackeray told reporters.
Later in the day, the Congress, at a press conference in Delhi, echoed those sentiments and termed it a bad day for democracy.
But BJP leader and law minister Ravi Shankar Prasad defended the move and said it was in keeping with the popular mandate and noted that the Fadnavis-Pawar Jr formation was the only one that had staked claim to forming the government since the election results were declared on October 24.
Analysts point out that the BJP-Ajit Pawar alliance is as opportunistic as the NCP-Congress-Sena one, and that both do not reflect the mandate. After all, the BJP and the Sena were in a pre-poll alliance, just as the NCP and Congress were. With the Sena playing hardball after the results were announced on October 24, and insisting on sharing the chief minister’s post, the BJP decided to sit out. On November 12, the governor announced President’s Rule even as Sharad Pawar started working on a Sena-Congress-NCP alliance. After much toing and froing, the Sena-NCP-Congresss alliance seemed to be ready to stake its claim on Saturday — only to see the BJP trump it.
“Our commitment is to provide a strong government for the next five years. Our commitment is to the people of the state,” Fadnavis said.
At a joint press conference with Thackeray, Sharad Pawar said his nephew had acted on his own and didn’t have the support of either the family or the party. “Ajit Pawar’s decision is an act of indiscipline. No NCP worker is in favour of the NCP-BJP government. NCP MLAs who support the BJP should know this move attracts provisions of anti-defection law,” he said.
There is still uncertainty over several issues — including whether the provisions of the anti-defection law will apply to the NCP legislators with Pawar Jr because the assembly in the state is yet to be sworn in.
Legal experts say the MLAs who have extended support to BJP can be disqualified under the anti-defection law but the process will formally kick in once the MLAs take oath and a speaker is nominated.
“The anti-defection law applies to an elected representative on the day the results are declared. The law applies to the elected representatives since that time onwards. The NCP can formally file a petition now also before the speaker’s office, citing instances of anti-party activities by the broken faction,” former Lok Sabha speaker PD Achary said.
There are also questions over how governor Koshyari accepted that the Fadnavis-Pawar Jr combine had the numbers, although some analysts point out that because Ajit Pawar was the head of the NCP legislative party (which means he has the authority to speak for the members of the party who, in effect, have to obey his whip if he issues one), the governor was merely going by the rule book.
Finally, there’s still doubt in some quarters over whether Sharad Pawar was really in the dark despite everything he has said. The fact that he had a one-on-one meeting with PM Modi, with no one else present, three days ago – he said later that he discussed the agrarian crisis in the state, and also released a copy of the memo on this he had handed over to Modi – helped fuel this speculation.
The run-up to November 30, the deadline for the Fadnavis-Pawar Jr alliance to demonstrate a majority, promises to be eventful.