New Delhi : The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday predicted warm and dry weather in February, warning that above-normal temperatures are likely to accelerate crop growth and shorten the duration of Rabi crops, particularly in northwest and central regions.
The forecast of fewer and less intense western disturbances (WDs) means day and night temperatures will likely be above normal, with below-normal rainfall expected over most parts of northwest India, the weather department said. Independent experts added that a short spring season is likely.
“We have provided specific warnings and advice for the Rabi crop this time. At this point we can only speculate that day temperatures are expected to be high because of fewer and less intense western disturbances. Night temperatures are likely to be high, possibly because of cloudy skies associated with mild western disturbances. The WDs are not expected to reach or impact the Eastern Himalayas either and hence those states may also experience a warm February,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
The February forecast follows an unusually dry winter, especially regarding snowfall over the Western Himalayas. Northwest India experienced one of its driest winters on record, with an 84.8% rainfall deficiency in December and 84% in the first 10 days of January, leaving the region’s hills parched at the height of the season, HT reported on January 11. While the rain deficiency in January was considerably reduced to 12.1% over northwest India and 31.5% over the country, the snowfall period was extremely short this year, Mohapatra acknowledged.
{{/usCountry}}The February forecast follows an unusually dry winter, especially regarding snowfall over the Western Himalayas. Northwest India experienced one of its driest winters on record, with an 84.8% rainfall deficiency in December and 84% in the first 10 days of January, leaving the region’s hills parched at the height of the season, HT reported on January 11. While the rain deficiency in January was considerably reduced to 12.1% over northwest India and 31.5% over the country, the snowfall period was extremely short this year, Mohapatra acknowledged.
{{/usCountry}}“Over a period of time, if you look at the rainfall activity or snowfall activity over western Himalayan region has decreased. And there are studies which say that it is because of the impact of climate change. There is a decreasing trend in the rainfall and snowfall activity in winter months over the western Himalayan region—that is Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand,” he added.
Monthly rainfall during February over northwest India—consisting of East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh—is most likely to be below normal (<78% of Long Period Average). The LPA for February for northwest India from 1971-2020 is 65.0mm.
Minimum temperatures during February are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some regions of south peninsular India. Below-normal cold wave days are likely over several parts of northwest and adjoining central India. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except isolated regions of central India and the southern parts of peninsular India.
“This indicates a short spring. A WD has just affected the region, and two more are expected on February 2 and 6. But these will not be as intense. March temperatures are critical for Rabi crop especially wheat, otherwise both yield and quality is impacted,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.
Crops such as wheat and barley may experience forced maturity, leading to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains, resulting in yield reduction, IMD’s agromet advisory said. Oilseeds and pulses including mustard, chickpea, lentil and field peas may show early flowering and premature maturity. Warmer conditions may also favour rapid multiplication of aphids and other sucking pests.