2019 will be the first parliamentary election in Tamil Nadu after the death of two of the state’s biggest leaders: J Jayalalithaa of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and M Karunanidhi of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The AIADMK created history by retaining power in Tamil Nadu by winning the assembly elections twice in a row, 2011 and 2016, ending a two-decade old trend. Tamil Nadu has flipped between the AIADMK and the DMK since 1989.
What is ironical is that the AIADMK’s alliance formula is not in keeping with its historic achievement in the 2016 elections. The AIADMK is only contesting 20 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu in these Lok Sabha elections, the lowest since 1996. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contesting five seats in alliance with the AIADMK, while the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) are contesting seven and four seats respectively. The Puthiya Tamilagam, the Puthiya Needhi Katchi, and the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) have got one seat each.
To be sure, the DMK is also contesting only 20 seats in the state, but this is in keeping with its earlier alliance adjustments.
(See Chart 1: Seats contested by AIADMK and DMK in Tamil Nadu)
Why has the AIADMK ceded so much ground to its alliance partners? One, it does not have the charisma of Jayalalithaa anymore. An even bigger problem for the AIADMK is that succession battles after Jayalalithaa’s death might have significantly weakened the party. Eighteen of the 134 AIADMK’s MLAs were disqualified by the speaker of the state assembly in September 2017, after they sided with TTV Dhinakaran, the former chief minister’s protege. Dhinakaran later established his political clout by managing to wrest RK Nagar, Jayalalitha’s assembly seat, in a bypoll held in December 2017. He has floated a new party called the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).
{{/usCountry}}Why has the AIADMK ceded so much ground to its alliance partners? One, it does not have the charisma of Jayalalithaa anymore. An even bigger problem for the AIADMK is that succession battles after Jayalalithaa’s death might have significantly weakened the party. Eighteen of the 134 AIADMK’s MLAs were disqualified by the speaker of the state assembly in September 2017, after they sided with TTV Dhinakaran, the former chief minister’s protege. Dhinakaran later established his political clout by managing to wrest RK Nagar, Jayalalitha’s assembly seat, in a bypoll held in December 2017. He has floated a new party called the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).
{{/usCountry}}How much damage can the AMMK cause the AIADMK? An extrapolation of 2016 assembly results at the parliamentary constituency (PC) level suggests that it could be significant. The AIADMK’s PC-wise extrapolated tally would have come down from 34 to 27 if the votes of rebel MLAs were to be subtracted. If these MLAs are able to retain their popular support, it could lead to a significant reduction in the AIADMK’s vote share.
(See Chart 2: Before and after disqualification)
To be sure, the AMMK could also play spoiler for the DMK alliance. The DMK’s vote share came down by 19 percentage points between the 2016 assembly election and the 2017 by-poll in the RK Nagar assembly constituency. It is also difficult to say whether other smaller parties in the AIADMK alliance will be able to offset for the loss of votes on account of the AMMK.
The results of 2019 polls will not just have a bearing on government formation at the Centre, but also give much needed clarity on the prevailing political uncertainty in the state.