Ghaziabad: The Ghaziabad parliamentary constituency is witnessing a triangular fight and the outcome of the polls will heavily depend on caste equations. The three main contenders— VK Singh of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Suresh Bansal of the Samajwadi Party (SP) - Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance and Dolly Sharma of the Congress are internally banking on getting their caste equations right.
The Ghaziabad constituency has five segments — Loni, Muradnagar, Sahibabad, Ghaziabad and Dhaulana — where 27,28,084 electors will exercise their franchise. According to estimates, Ghaziabad constituency has an estimated five lakh Muslims, six lakh Brahmins, three lakh each of Vaish and Jatavs, nearly 2.5 lakh Rajputs and Thakurs, besides two lakh Jat voters, among others.
All candidates claim that they have the support across classes and communities. However, parties like the SP, BSP, RLD and the Congress are trying hard to woo Muslims due to their sizeable presence and also because they are traditionally known to vote for parties that are most likely to challenge the BJP.
“It is our estimate that Muslim votes this time may get divided. Nearly 30% may favour the Congress while 50% may favour the alliance. The rest may go to other parties and local candidates, including the BJP. The Vaish voters will remember previous instances with the SP before giving support to its candidate,” Dr KZ Bukhari, city’s former Shahi Imam, said.
“It is expected that Rajputs, Jats, Gurjjars and Tyagis are likely to favour the BJP. The other candidates are seeking Muslim votes even if their parties are not in a position to form government at the Centre. This in fact is giving rise to polarisation,” he said.
{{/usCountry}}“It is expected that Rajputs, Jats, Gurjjars and Tyagis are likely to favour the BJP. The other candidates are seeking Muslim votes even if their parties are not in a position to form government at the Centre. This in fact is giving rise to polarisation,” he said.
{{/usCountry}}Political pundits say the alliance seems to be more of a ‘caste-based alliance’ and will command a majority votes from Jatavs, Dalits, Yadavs and Muslims.
“The alliance is expected to get majority votes of Jatavs (Dalits). They make up nearly 10% of the electorate. Of the OBCs, the Yadav may also go for the alliance candidate. It is to be seen how much the BJP and the Congress may influence the rest of the Dalits and OBCs. Over a period, the Brahmins have moved from the Congress towards the BJP,” Dr Virendra Singh, associate professor (political science) from MMH College, said.
He said the BJP has a pull among the urban segments and Dalits in urban areas.
Dr Singh said PM Modi’s nationalism pitch after the air strikes has high takers among first-time voters and the middle-aged voters who prefer an aggressive attitude. He estimates that the Vaish community has been a traditional vote bank for the BJP but was put off by the Good & Services Tax (GST).
“Still, a majority of them will go with the BJP while some may support SP’s Bansal as he himself is a Vaish. Jats will remain with the BJP while elderly voters will side with the RLD as they have special allegiance to famer leader Chaudhary Charan Singh. It will be interesting to see if traditional rivals SP and BSP will take chances in transferring their votes to each other,” Singh said.
The local leaders said the equation for estimated six lakh Brahmins this time has changed a bit and may get divided between the BJP and the Congress candidate Dolly Sharma who is a Brahmin. If that happens, it will be a dent for the BJP.
BK Sharma, the national spokesperson of ‘Sarv Brahmin Mahasabha’ said that Brahmin leaders in Ghaziabad this time have decided to support Brahmin candidate and not any party.
“Brahmins are annoyed with the BJP after no tickets were given to leaders like Kalraj Mishra and Murli Manohar Joshi. We are expecting that nearly 50% will support Dolly Sharma who is a Brahmin candidate. We have also pledged support to Gautam Budh Nagar candidate Dr Mahesh Sharma as he is a Brahmin,” Sharma said.