The electoral contest in the state has taken an interesting turn with the fielding of candidates who belong to neither the NDA camp nor the Congress-led Grand Alliance. The fielding of candidates belonging to parties like Trinamool Congress (TMC), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) for Dhanbad and Giridih Lok Sabha seats may upset the opposition’s plans of consolidating anti-NDA votes in these two constituencies.
For the Dhanbad seat, TMC has fielded Bamopada Bauri, while SP has nominated Meraj Khan. Bauri belongs to the Nirsa block, has considerable influence in the Nirsa assembly segment, and could potentially draw reasonable number of votes. SP candidate Meraj Khan is a resident of Jharia and is considered a popular leader within the minority community.
In 2014, BJP’s Pashupati Nath Singh got 5,43,941 votes, which was more than all the opposition candidates combined, including All Jharkhand Students Union party, which is in alliance with BJP this time. But the stakes are different for this Lok Sabha elections, as all the major opposition parties are united and the opposition’s vote is expected to be consolidated. Congress has fielded Kirti Azad from Dhanbad.
“The political situation in Dhanbad today is similar to what it was 15 years ago. At that time, an anti-Congress sentiment was prevalent and today, a similar anti-BJP sentiment is prevalent. The presence of TMC, SP and BSP candidates would impact the non-BJP votes in Dhanbad,” said professor Pramod Pathak, political analyst, who has been monitoring election trends in the region since 1980.
{{/usCountry}}“The political situation in Dhanbad today is similar to what it was 15 years ago. At that time, an anti-Congress sentiment was prevalent and today, a similar anti-BJP sentiment is prevalent. The presence of TMC, SP and BSP candidates would impact the non-BJP votes in Dhanbad,” said professor Pramod Pathak, political analyst, who has been monitoring election trends in the region since 1980.
{{/usCountry}}In 2014, TMC candidate Chandra Shekhar Dubey had got around 30,000 votes. Political experts feel that Dubey cut into traditional Congress votes. Dubey had earlier won from Dhanbad on a Congress ticket in 2004, lost in 2009 and became a rebel in 2014 and fought on a TMC ticket, before re-joining Congress again. Given that Dubey was a strong Congress contender from Dhanbad this time, the party’s decision to not field may have an impact on how voters vote for Kirti Azad.
BSP candidate Madan Mohan Ram got 8,455 votes, while Aklu Ram Mahto of Samajwadi Party got 4,169 votes in 2014. “Had the Grand Alliance fielded any minority candidate from any of the 14 Lok Sabha seats of state, SP would not have put up its nominee. That is why I am contesting. If anti- BJP votes are divided in this election, the opposition would be responsible,” said Dhanbad SP candidate and party’s state in-charge, Meraj Khan.
Congress, which got 250,537 votes in 2014, would get support of Marxists Coordination Committee (MCC) of AK Roy and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha Party(JVM-P) of Babulal Marandi this time. MCC candidate Anand Mahto got over 1.10 lakh votes, while JVM(P) candidate Samaresh Singh got around 91,000 votes in 2014. BJP would benefit from AJSU’s support, which got around 21,000 votes in Dhanbad last time.
In Giridih, while BSP has fielded Rasul Baksh, TMC is yet to announce the name of its candidate. In 2014, TMC candidate Ashutosh Verma had got 11,355 votes, followed by Kartik Mahto of BSP who got 6,341 votes and SP candidate Jitendra Ram who got 2,825 votes.
It is interesting to note that the victory margin in Giridih was little over 40,000 in 2014 and JMM and JVM(P) together received over 4,00,000 votes, more than what winner Ravindra Kumar Pandey of BJP received (Pandey received 3,91,913 votes). But with AJSU, which received over 55,000 votes in Giridih in 2014, allying with BJP this time and both SP and TMC, which received 13,000 votes in total in 2014, putting up their candidates, division in anti-NDA votes may play a decisive role.
“These parties have no ideological impact in the constituency. However, their candidates get 10,000 to 20,000 votes in elections and would cut non- BJP- AJSU votes. But the difference of victory and loss in the Giridih seat is not less than 50,000 votes. So their votes are not being considered as a deciding factor, until the decision comes down to differences of a few votes,” said Shahnawaz Akhtar, a political analyst from Giridih.