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Thursday, Nov 14, 2019

Most of the winning incumbents, new lawmakers from BJP

This is slightly higher than the last assembly where 78% were candidates contesting for the first time. In the Maharashtra elections, 3237 candidates contested the elections for the 288-member strong Maharashtra state legislative assembly, of which 84% (2730) contested their first election.

maharashtra Updated: Oct 27, 2019 10:52 IST
Basim Nissa, Mohit Kumar, Saloni Bhogale and Priyamvada Trivedi
Basim Nissa, Mohit Kumar, Saloni Bhogale and Priyamvada Trivedi
New Delhi
The recent elections were for 90 seats in the Haryana state assembly and 288 in the Maharashtra state assembly.
The recent elections were for 90 seats in the Haryana state assembly and 288 in the Maharashtra state assembly.(PTI)
         

The recent elections were for 90 seats in the Haryana state assembly and 288 in the Maharashtra state assembly. For Haryana, there were 1169 candidates, out of which 997 (85%) were contesting for the first time.

This is slightly higher than the last assembly where 78% were candidates contesting for the first time. In the Maharashtra elections, 3237 candidates contested the elections for the 288-member strong Maharashtra state legislative assembly, of which 84% (2730) contested their first election. This figure is comparable to the number of first timers in the last assembly election in 2014.

In Haryana, there were 429 (37%) candidates running on a national or state-based party ticket, while 364 (31%) and 376 (32%) candidates contested on a local party ticket and as Independents, respectively. In Maharashtra, 932 (29%) of the candidates contested on a national or state-based party ticket, while 910 (28%) and 1395 (43%) candidates contested on local party tickets and as independents, respectively.

 

Strike rate of Re-running incumbents

In Haryana, 70% of the incumbents (63 in all) contested the assembly elections. This number is slightly lower than last time where 72% of the incumbents contested. The strike rate for the re-running incumbents is about 47% which means that 30 sitting MLAs won again.

The strike rate in the 2014 assembly election stood at 29.23%, where out of 65 incumbents who re-ran, 19 won.

Looking at party-wise incumbency metrics for Haryana, we observe that 65% of the re-running incumbents were from BJP and 25% from the Congress. These percentages include turncoats i.e. incumbents from other parties who contested either on a BJP or Congress ticket.

Similarly for Maharashtra, 77% of Maharashtra MLAs from 2014 contested again. The strike rate for re-running incumbents in the current election was 56% which is comparable to their strike rate in the prior two assembly elections — around 51%.

Looking at the party-wise break-up, BJP fielded the most number of incumbents i.e. 53% in the 2019 elections, followed by Shiv Sena at 22%, NCP at 11% and the Congress party at about 10%. These figures also include those MLAs who switched parties between two successive assembly elections.

First time MLA
s

In Haryana, there are 49 first time MLAs (54%). This is slightly lower from the previous two assemblies where the 2014 assembly had 68% and 2009 assembly had 56% first time MLAs. The highest number of first time MLAs are from BJP (19), followed by Congress (15), and eight from state party, Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) headed by Dushyant Chautala.

While Chautala contested and won on an Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) ticket in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, this was the first time he contested as an MLA from his newly formed party, JJP. From the 10 JJP MLAs, six have contested elections before; four on INLD tickets and two as independents. While share of first-time MLAs from the BJP has decreased from the last elections (39% in 2019 as against 65% in 2014), the share of new faces from the INC has increased (31% in 2019 as against 5% in 2014) compared to the last elections.

For Maharashtra, 42% of the MLAs are first timers. Out of these, 31 belong to BJP, 28 to NCP, 24 to Shiv Sena and 20 to Congress. Of these first time MLAs, 38 had contested previously, such as Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Rambhau Gaikwad who won his first election this year from Buldhana out of the four he has contested. Similarly, Udaysingh Sardarsingh Rajput won his first mandate on a Shiv Sena ticket from Kannad. This was his third contest.

Turncoats

The Haryana assembly has 15 turncoat MLAs, that is, MLAs who have switched their party between the previous and the current elections.

Of them, 10 MLAs switched from INLD to the BJP (3), INC (3) and the JJP (4).

The Maharashtra assembly has 33 turncoat MLAs out of which 12 switched to the BJP — six switched from INC, four from NCP, and one each from Shiv Sena and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha. Among the rest, five switched to Congress and seven each to Shiv Sena and NCP.

All authors work at the Trivedi Centre for Political Data, Ashoka University. Basim U Nissa and Saloni Bhogale are Research Fellows, Mohit Kumar is a Data Scientist and Priyamvada Trivedi is the Associate Director. We are thankful to Gilles Verniers and Sudheendra Hangal for comments