Expect rain, strong wind today, courtesy the fourth western disturbance this MayUpdated: May 12, 2020 23:53 IST
With the mercury staying well below the season’s average on Tuesday -- the maximum temperature was 37.2 degrees Celsius, two notches below the season’s average -- the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted rain with strong winds on Wednesday.
The IMD warned that strong winds may sweep across parts of Noida, Ghaziabad and adjoining regions of Delhi towards Wednesday afternoon or evening. The wind speed may reach 70 kilometres per hour (kmph), as it had recently on Sunday, May 10.
According to the weather analysts, a new western disturbance – a phenomenon that causes rains and thunder activities in the region – will have its effects till Thursday. This is the fourth western disturbance this month, they said. According to the weather scientists, 2020 has experienced more western disturbances (WD) than “usually expected” or “normally prevalent” in other years.
A Western disturbance is basically the flow of high moisture air and clouds from Mediterranean sea towards east Himalayan range via Iraq , Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“Strong winds and squalls are expected to affect the NCR, especially the region of eastern Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh areas of Noida and Ghaziabad. The wind speed may vary from 60kmph to 70kmph. Although the speed will not be consistent, even a minute or two of such strong wind may cause tress to fall, bring down hoardings and signboards,” Kuldeep Srivastava, head, regional weather forecasting centre, IMD, said.
“The number of western disturbances had been more this year -- in January, there were nine WDs while generally there are not more than six. In February, there were 7 WDs whereas the month usually sees five WDs, and in March, there were six WDs against the normal trend of four. In April, there were six while we don’t expect more than five. In the month of May, the normal expectation, assessed from the patterns so far, is of four WDs for the entire month, whereas this WD expected on Wednesday is already the fourth,”Srivastava explained.
He added that it is difficult to explain the reason for more number of western disturbances this year, and said one most obvious explanation could be ‘climate change’.
“It would take more time and occurrences of western disturbances to establish a connection to climate change. It is too early to say that for now,” he clarified.
Commenting on the regular occurrence of strong winds this year, experts state that it’s because of the variation in the temperature.
“High winds are normal for this time of the year -- it’s a pre-monsoon activity. However, with more WDs, there are more chances of strong winds or dust storm. It also happens due to the formation of cumulative cloud that happens due to temperature differences and instability in the atmospheric layers,” Mahesh Palawat, director private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, said.
The IMD said that while Wednesday would see rain and squalls, its effects may continue till Thursday with patchy rain and cloudy sky.
“The temperature will remain well under the season’s average till Thursday. From Friday onwards, however, the temperatures will start gradually rising,” Srivastava added.
Tuesday’s maximum temperature was recorded at 37.2 degrees Celsius, two notches below the season’s average against 36 degrees Celsius a day earlier. The minimum temperature was recorded at 24.3 degrees Celsius, same as a day earlier.
On Wednesday, the maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to hover around 34 and 26 degrees Celsius, respectively.
“After rain, the temperature falls gradually. So, for it to rise gradually will take some time, because there are cumulative effects of post WD wind directions and moisture in the air,” Palawat said.