China’s Covid Zero policy is buying time for the country to bolster measures that will allow it to declare victory over the virus, according to a top expert.
The country must boost immunisation rates among the elderly and vulnerable from current levels, and ensure it has ample medical resources like hospital beds and antiviral pills, Liang Wannian, the head of the National Health Commission expert panel, said at a briefing in Beijing on Friday. The strategy will be helped if future variants come with a lower risk of death, he said.
The priorities laid out by Liang, a seasoned epidemiologist who has led China’s Covid response since day one, is the clearest indication yet of what it would take for the country to start shifting its virus-fighting strategy.
China is ramping up efforts to quash its worst outbreak since the early days of the pandemic with the virus spreading to Beijing and Shanghai, two of its most significant cities. But measures like harsh lockdowns and mass testing that have effectively stamped out previous flareups are faltering in the face of omicron and taking an increasing economic and social toll.
“We will triumph over Covid by using the time that the ‘dynamic zero’ approach has given us and make these preparations,” Liang said. If China shifted away from the approach before the country was ready, the health-care system would be overwhelmed, the wellbeing of vulnerable groups would be threatened, and the economy would be impacted, he said.
The reliance on the Covid Zero playbook while the rest of the world has moved to living with the virus has also sparked debate about when and how China will re-open. The strategy allowed the country to grow in 2020 even as other major economies contracted, but this year’s outbreak risks roiling global supply chains anew.
{{/usCountry}}The reliance on the Covid Zero playbook while the rest of the world has moved to living with the virus has also sparked debate about when and how China will re-open. The strategy allowed the country to grow in 2020 even as other major economies contracted, but this year’s outbreak risks roiling global supply chains anew.
{{/usCountry}}China has fully vaccinated more than 88% of its population, and more than 81% of people aged 60 and above have received two shots. The country is yet to approve an mRNA vaccine and clinical trials have shown the inactivated vaccines from China’s Sinopharm Group Co. and Sinovac Biotech Ltd. are less effective in stopping infections, though the gap in protecting against severe disease and death is narrower.
China approved Pfizer Inc.’s antiviral paxlovid earlier this year. It also has a slew of domestic drug candidates, with the most advanced just finishing the final stage of human testing, though it’s unclear if and when any of them could be approved and become readily available.
Omicron is milder than earlier variants, but Liang’s comments suggest that China sees its mortality risk as still above what its health system can cope with. The recent virus wave in Hong Kong -- who Liang advised as the outbreak spiraled into the deadliest in the world -- saw a fatality rate of 0.76% compared with 0.1% for the flu seen in some countries.